Inflation dynamics in Uganda: a quantile regression approach

Abstract

This paper considers the measurement of inflation persistence in Uganda and how this has changed over time. As the data does not follow a normal distribution, we make use of the quantile regression approach to investigate how various shocks may affect the rate of inflation within different quantiles. The measures of inflation include headline inflation, the current measure of core inflation, and an alternative measure of core inflation. The results suggest that while a unit root is found in many of the upper quantiles of headline inflation, there is evidence of mean reversion within the lower quantiles. In addition, we find higher levels of persistence after 2006 and during the inflation-targeting period, after we identify potential structural changes in the regression quantiles. When considering the degree of persistence in the current measure of core inflation, the results suggest that there is a unit root in this measure during the inflation-targeting period. In addition, the alternative measure of core inflation, which is derived from a wavelets transformation, provides similar results. However, this measure is less volatile and more correlated with headline inflation. All the results suggest that large positive deviations from the mean would influence the permanent behaviour of inflation, while small negative deviations are relatively short-lived.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of adding tuberculosis household contact investigation on passive case-finding strategy in Southwestern Uganda

“…The researcher multiplied the time lost by Uganda’s minimum hourly wage of $0.15 per hour [ 28 ] to obtain the indirect cost. We valued patients’ and caregivers’ time using the minimum wage in Uganda as a proxy for the value of time for a person who is a non-wage earner[ 29 ].…”

Human Capital Development and Unemployment in Uganda: The Keynesian Theory of Unemployment in Perspective

“…In the field of macroeconomic policy and management, the relationship between inflation and unemployment in Uganda is a topic of great interest and relevance. A country's economic well-being is directly impacted by two crucial macroeconomic indicators: unemployment, which is the percentage of the labor force that is actively looking for work but is unable to find it, and inflation, which is defined as the consistent increase in the general price level of goods and services over time (Anguyo, Gupta, & Kotzé, 2020). Understanding the dynamics between inflation and unemployment is essential for policymakers in Uganda to formulate effective monetary and fiscal policies that promote price stability, sustainable economic growth, and full employment.…”

Structural breaks, Twitter, and the stock liquidity of internet Dot-com company: Evidence from US companies

“…That is why academia, policy makers, and other concerned stakeholders conduct ex ante or ex post research to investigate theses structural changes in numerous financial and economic variables. Ruch et al (2020), Anguyo et al (2020), Hegerty (2020), Nath and Sarkar (2019), Gil-Alana (2019), Orlowski (2017) examine the break dates and the impact of structural changes on inflation series with regards to other variables. Ruch et al (2020) predict inflation variables using factor-augmented VARs (FAVAR), time-varying parameter vector autoregressive models (TVP-VARs), and structural break models.…”

“…Their results also showed that structural break did not enhance the predictability of inflation. Anguyo et al (2020) examine structural changes and measurement of inflation persistence over time using the Uganda data. Using the regression quantile, they find higher levels of persistence after 2006 and during the inflation targeting period.…”