Influence exerted by biological and social risk factors on morbidity with tick-borne en-cephalitis in some regins in the Urals Federal District

Abstract

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) as an infectious disease remains a significant issue in the Urals Federal District (the UFD). To correctly describe impacts exerted by risk factors on TBE epidemic process, it is necessary to analyze both common and individual peculiarities related to how TBE epidemic process develops on endemic administrative territories.We assessed impacts exerted by biological and social factors on morbidity with TBE in four endemic regions in the UFD (Sverdlovsk, Chelyabinsk, Tyumen, and Kurgan regions) over 2007-2017. To quantitatively assess contributions made by specific factors into morbidity with TBE, we calculated chances for people who suffered tick bites to fall ill with TBE; it allowed us to apply standard procedures within generalized linear models theory (GLM), namely logistic regression. Our analysis included aggregated data on quantity of people who were bitten by ticks and fell will with TBE in all the examined regions. We also assessed data for each specific region as all these endemic territories had both common and specific regularities related to TBE endemic process development.We showed statistically significant impacts exerted by specific manageable risk factors (vaccination, immune prevention, and acaricide treatment performed on a territory) on a possibility of TBE occurrence among people bitten by ticks on endemic territories. The examined UFD regions differ as per effects produced by natural and social risk factors on TBE development. Mass vaccine prevention is a key factor in the control over morbidity with the disease.Risk-oriented approach provides significant additional data for analyzing an epidemiological situation and planning efficient preventive activities in TBE natural foci.