Influence mechanism of climate change over crop growth and water demands for wheat-rice system of Punjab, Pakistan

Ahmad, Mirza Junaid; Cho, Gun-Ho; Kim, Sang-Hyun; Lee, Seulgi; Adelodun, Bashir; Choi, Kyung-Sook

doi:10.2166/wcc.2020.009

Cited by 15 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…However, this result disagrees with the finding of Saadi et al (2015) who predicted an uptrend of ET 0 in Algeria by 2050 under the A1B emission scenario. Ahmad et al (2020) also predicted an increase in seasonal ET 0 in Pakistan due to temperature rise during wheat-growing season by the end of twenty-first century under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5.…”

Section: Projected Evapotranspiration and Water Productivitymentioning

confidence: 91%

Assessment of future climate change impact on rainfed wheat yield in the semi-arid Eastern High Plain of Algeria using a crop model

et al. 2020

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Maintaining sustainability in rainfed wheat production under changing climate is a grave concern for food security in Algeria. This study aims to assess the impact of future climate change on rainfed wheat yield in the semiarid Eastern High Plains (Setif and Bordj Bou Arreridj (BBA)) in Algeria using AquaCrop model. For this purpose, the EURO-CORDEX climate projections by 2035-2064 and 2065-2094 were downscaled using ICHEC_KNMI model under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The crop model predicted wheat yield increase by 82-95% and 77-118% at Setif and by 8-16% and 133-135% at BBA under the RCP 4.5 (2035-64 and 2065-94) and RCP 8.5 (2035-64 and 2065-94) scenarios, respectively, compared to the yield of the baseline period of 1981-2010. Future yield improvement is due to the fertilizing effect of the elevated carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration in the atmosphere, which offsets the negative impacts of rising temperature, decreasing precipitations and the net solar radiation. The expected increase in yield is much higher under RCP 8.5 compared to RCP 4.5 because CO 2 concentration is higher under RCP 8.5. The model predicted an increase in wheat water productivity because of the expected decrease in evapotranspiration losses. To adapt rainfed wheat to future climate change in the study area, early sowing in mid-October provides better yields because it allows the wheat crop to take more benefits from increased precipitation during the vegetative development stage and to avoid the spring warming temperature.

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Section: Projected Evapotranspiration and Water Productivitymentioning

confidence: 91%

Assessment of future climate change impact on rainfed wheat yield in the semi-arid Eastern High Plain of Algeria using a crop model

et al. 2020

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“…Rice-wheat rotation covers approximately 1.1 million hectares (Mha) in Punjab, of which 0.59 Mha lies in the culturable command area of the non-perennial UCC. During the summer and winter seasons, 50-60% of the UCC command area remains under rice and wheat cultivation, respectively [7,17].…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Agriculture is the primary target of adverse climate change impacts due to its indisputable higher dependence on the climate for survival [4]. Climate-driven natural calamities such as floods, droughts, and warm and dry spells, exacerbated by climate warming or rainfall changes [1], are reshaping crop growth patterns, irrigation demand and supply, and particularly yields [2,3,[5][6][7][8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several studies have quantified the severity of the climate change phenomenon in Pakistan and its implications for crop production and water requirements [3,6,7,9,[14][15][16]. Climate change impacts on crop water requirements [7,16,17], crop phenology [2,18], yields, and water productivity using the crop growth models [6,9,10,14,15] and yield gap [11] have been evaluated. Shabbir et al [19] and Shahid et al [14] optimized adaptation strategies such as nitrogen application rates, plant density, and sowing dates for rice and wheat, respectively, against future climate change threats.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate-Induced Perspective Variations in Irrigation Schedules and Design Water Requirements for the Rice–Wheat System

Ahmad

Choi

2021

Agronomy

Self Cite

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Conceptualizing the implications of climate change for crop evapotranspiration (ETc) and subsequent net irrigation water requirement (NIWR) is critical to sustaining Pakistan’s agriculture and food security. In this article, future ETc, NIWR, and design water requirements (DWR) were projected for the rice–wheat system of Punjab, Pakistan. Consistently increasing temperatures signify an impending hotter transition in the future thermal regime, accompanied by a substantial increase in monsoon rainfall. Future climate warming accelerated ETc and NIWR, which were compensated by 2–5 and 1–2 additional irrigations during the rice and wheat seasons, respectively. Future rice and wheat required 13–18 and 2–5 irrigations per season, respectively. Effective rainfall increments did not compensate for the warming-driven higher ETc and NIWR because of uneven and erratic rainfall distribution. Rainfall occurrence and the duration of peak irrigation demand were mismatched, resulting in surplus rainwater availability during the future rice season. The results suggest that DWR for 5- and 10-year return period droughts during the baseline period (965 and 1000 mm, respectively) should be revised to accommodate the additional 100–200 mm of irrigation water per season; otherwise, the study area will face an acute water shortage in the future.

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Assessing water productivity and energy use for irrigating rice in Pakistan

Akbar

Hameed

Iqbal

2022

Irrigation and Drainage

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Overirrigation of rice crops from groundwater negatively impacts water productivity, energy use and the environment in Pakistan. Therefore, four decades (1981–2020) of data on rice crop area and production were assessed for water productivity, and alternative options for irrigation application and energy use were explored. The results show a maximum average yield of 2.42 t ha‾¹ and water productivity of 0.16 kg m‾3 (6211 L kg‾¹) for the last decade (2011–2020), with an average decadal yield increase of 14%. The last year's rice crop during 2020 consumed 14.43 million acre‐feet (MAF) of groundwater, assuming a minimum irrigation application of 1500 mm per season. The maximum equivalent energy required for pumping is approximately 386 MW for electrical and 4966 MW for diesel‐driven tube wells. Diesel combustion for pumping caused 1.26 million t (467 kg ha‾¹) of CO2 emissions per season. The capital cost for converting all installed capacities of electrical (2311 MW, PKR 481 billion) and diesel (16 517 MW, PKR 1909 billion) tube wells to solar energy can be recovered in less than 4 years. Improved governance and optimized site‐specific solar system designs can avoid undergoing groundwater. Improving water productivity and using solar energy for irrigation indicates the prospects of improved sustainability of rice crops in Pakistan.

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Influence mechanism of climate change over crop growth and water demands for wheat-rice system of Punjab, Pakistan

Cited by 15 publications

References 59 publications

Assessment of future climate change impact on rainfed wheat yield in the semi-arid Eastern High Plain of Algeria using a crop model

Assessment of future climate change impact on rainfed wheat yield in the semi-arid Eastern High Plain of Algeria using a crop model

Climate-Induced Perspective Variations in Irrigation Schedules and Design Water Requirements for the Rice–Wheat System

Assessing water productivity and energy use for irrigating rice in Pakistan

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