Influence of a Cme’s Initial Parameters on the Arrival of the Associated Interplanetary Shock at Earth and the Shock Propagational Model Version 3

Zhao, Xinhua; Feng, Xueshang

doi:10.1088/0004-637x/809/1/44

Cited by 10 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…Finally, it should be noted that there are also various forms of empirical forecasting methods that rely on relationships between CME-driven shocks and CMEs, CME-associated flares, or type II radio bursts. Analytical models also exit as well as hybrid approaches that combine components of empirical and analytical models (e.g., Feng and Zhao 2006;Zhao and Dryer 2014;Zhao and Feng 2015;Zhao et al 2016, and references therein).…”

Section: Physics-based Kinematic Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Physical Processes of CME/ICME Evolution

et al. 2017

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As observed in Thomson-scattered white light, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are manifest as large-scale expulsions of plasma magnetically driven from the corona in the most energetic eruptions from the Sun. It remains a tantalizing mystery as to how these erupting magnetic fields evolve to form the complex structures we observe in the solar wind at Earth. Here, we strive to provide a fresh perspective on the post-eruption and interplanetary evolution of CMEs, focusing on the physical processes that define the many complex interactions of the ejected plasma with its surroundings as it departs the corona and propagates through the heliosphere. We summarize the ways CMEs and their interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) are rotated, reconfigured, deformed, deflected, decelerated and disguised during their journey through the solar wind. This study then leads to consideration of how structures originating in coronal eruptions can be connected to their far removed interplanetary counterparts. Given that ICMEs are the drivers of most geomagnetic storms (and the sole driver of extreme storms), this work provides a guide to the processes that must be considered in making space weather forecasts from remote observations of the corona.

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Section: Physics-based Kinematic Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Physical Processes of CME/ICME Evolution

et al. 2017

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“…These studies assume the type II sources are carried outwards by the shock along a certain direction, and infer the shock speed with a prescribed coronal density model. On this basis, several space weather forecasting schemes are constructed (Smith & Dryer 1990, Fry et al 2001, Zhao & Feng 2015. Here we show that the type II sources along a single band can move from the flank side to the top front, thus a single density model is not applicable to this kind of event.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 95%

An Imaging Study of a Complex Solar Coronal Radio Eruption

Feng

Chen

Song

et al. 2016

ApJL

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Solar coronal radio bursts are enhanced radio emission excited by energetic electrons accelerated during solar eruptions, studies on which are important for investigating the origin and physical mechanism of energetic particles and further diagnosing coronal parameters. Earlier studies suffered from a lack of simultaneous high-quality imaging data of the radio burst and the eruptive structure in the inner corona. Here we present a study on a complex solar radio eruption consisting of a type II and three reversely-drifting type III bursts, using simultaneous EUV and radio imaging data. It is found that the type II burst is closely associated with a propagating and evolving CME-driven EUV shock structure, originated initially at the northern shock flank and later transferred to the top part of the shock. This source transfer is co-incident with the presence of shock decay and enhancing signatures observed at the corresponding side of the EUV front. The electron energy accelerated by the shock at the flank is estimated to be ∼ 0.3 c by examining the imaging data of the fast-drifting herringbone structure of the type II burst. The reversely-drifting type III sources are found to be within the ejecta and correlated with a likely reconnection event therein. Implications on further observational studies and relevant space-weather forecasting techniques are discussed.

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“…Similar to the ENLIL model, these models can predict if the shock arrives at Earth or not. Zhao and Feng [2015] reported on the results of their updated version of the Shock Propagation Model (SPM3). They found that the MAE of the shock travel times predicted by the SPM3 is 9.1 h. They also compared the SMP3 results with the predictions of other models such as the STOA [Dryer and Smart, 1984;Smart and Shea, 1985] model, the ISPM [Smith and Dryer, 1990], and the HAFv.2 [Fry et al, 2001] model and also with the earlier version of their own model called SMP2 (see their Table 4).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A major distinction between the models is that they describe the background solar wind through which the shock propagates at different levels of detail. Zhao and Feng [] have developed a version of the SMP model that includes also the CME speed and provided the most recent comparison between the different versions of the four shock propagation models. They found that the MAEs of the shock arrival time were in the range of 8.9–10.0 h.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The radial speed‐expansion speed relation for Earth‐directed CMEs

2016

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Earth‐directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the main drivers of major geomagnetic storms. Therefore, a good estimate of the disturbance arrival time at Earth is required for space weather predictions. The STEREO and SOHO spacecraft were viewing the Sun in near quadrature during January 2010 to September 2012, providing a unique opportunity to study the radial speed (Vrad)‐expansion speed (Vexp) relationship of Earth‐directed CMEs. This relationship is useful in estimating the Vrad of Earth‐directed CMEs, when they are observed from Earth view only. We selected 19 Earth‐directed CMEs observed by the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO)/C3 coronagraph on SOHO and the Sun Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation (SECCHI)/COR2 coronagraph on STEREO during January 2010 to September 2012. We found that of the three tested geometric CME models the full ice‐cream cone model of the CME describes best the Vrad‐Vexp relationship, as suggested by earlier investigations. We also tested the prediction accuracy of the empirical shock arrival (ESA) model proposed by Gopalswamy et al. (2005a), while estimating the CME propagation speeds from the CME expansion speeds. If we use STEREO observations to estimate the CME width required to calculate the Vrad from the Vexp measurements, the mean absolute error (MAE) of the shock arrival times of the ESA model is 8.4 h. If the LASCO measurements are used to estimate the CME width, the MAE still remains below 17 h. Therefore, by using the simple Vrad‐Vexp relationship to estimate the Vrad of the Earth‐directed CMEs, the ESA model is able to predict the shock arrival times with accuracy comparable to most other more complex models.

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Influence of a Cme’s Initial Parameters on the Arrival of the Associated Interplanetary Shock at Earth and the Shock Propagational Model Version 3

Cited by 10 publications

References 42 publications

The Physical Processes of CME/ICME Evolution

The Physical Processes of CME/ICME Evolution

An Imaging Study of a Complex Solar Coronal Radio Eruption

The radial speed‐expansion speed relation for Earth‐directed CMEs

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