Influence of climate and human land use on the distribution of white-tailed deer (<i>Odocoileus</i><i>virginianus</i>) in the western boreal forest

Dawe, Kimberly L.; Bayne, Erin M.; Boutin, Stan

doi:10.1139/cjz-2013-0262

Cited by 70 publications

(91 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…The influence of winter weather on white‐tailed deer winter mortality risk which we observed is consistent with other studies of deer survival in northern climates (e.g., Delgiudice et al, ; Dumont et al, ; Nelson & Mech, ), and generally supports the hypothesis that winter weather conditions are the primary factor limiting the northern distribution of white‐tailed deer in North America (Dawe, Bayne, & Boutin, ; Kennedy‐Slaney, Bowman, Walpole, & Pond, ). Our results indicated that the most critical period of winter deer mortality risk is late winter–early spring (April and May) when snowmelt occurs, but mortality risk varied widely among years depending on weather conditions.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

“…A similar nutritional influence on white‐tailed deer mortality was observed in South Dakota, where poor winter range conditions resulted in April–June adult female mortality rates exceeding 20% in 3 of 4 years (DePerno et al, ). Among nearby white‐tailed deer studies using the same Winter Severity Index as ours, a WSI of 167 as we observed in winter 2013–20114 is associated with poor deer population performance; in Ontario, Canada, Dawe et al () predicted a <10% probability of deer populations occurring in areas with an average WSI ≥ 167. In Minnesota, USA, Delgiudice et al () reported one winter with WSI > 167 (WSI = 199), with a 46% mortality rate for adult female deer.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 72%

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Influence of body mass and environmental conditions on winter mortality risk of a northern ungulate: Evidence for a late‐winter survival bottleneck

Kautz

Belant

Beyer

et al. 2020

Ecology and Evolution

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A relationship between winter weather and survival of northern ungulates has long been established, yet the possible roles of biological (e.g., nutritional status) and environmental (e.g., weather) conditions make it important to determine which potential limiting factors are most influential. Our objective was to examine the potential effects of individual (body mass and age) and extrinsic (winter severity and snowmelt conditions) factors on the magnitude and timing of mortality for adult (>2.5 years old) female white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus [Zimmerman, 1780]) during February–May in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, USA. One hundred and fifty deer were captured and monitored during 2009–2015 in two areas with varying snowfall. February–May survival ranged from 0.24 to 0.89 (mean = 0.69) across years. Mortality risk increased 1.9% with each unit increase in cumulative winter severity index, decreased 8.2% with each cumulative snow‐free day, and decreased 4.3% with each kg increase in body mass. Age and weekly snow depth did not influence weekly deer survival. Predation, primarily from coyote (Canis latrans [Say, 1823]) and wolves (Canis lupus [L., 1758]), accounted for 78% of known‐cause mortalities. Our results suggest that cumulative winter severity, and possibly to a lesser degree deer condition entering winter, impacted deer winter survival. However, the timing of spring snowmelt appeared to be the most influential factor determining late‐winter mortality of deer in our study. This supports the hypothesis that nutrition and energetic demands from weather conditions are both important to northern ungulate winter ecology. Under this model, a delay of several weeks in the timing of spring snowmelt could exert a large influence on deer survival, resulting in a survival bottleneck.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 72%

Influence of body mass and environmental conditions on winter mortality risk of a northern ungulate: Evidence for a late‐winter survival bottleneck

Kautz

Belant

Beyer

et al. 2020

Ecology and Evolution

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“…Dawe et al. () identified that climate, particularly an index of winter severity, was the most important individual factor determining current white‐tailed deer distribution in boreal Alberta. Human land use (as measured by total land use footprint) also acted to substantially increase the probability of white‐tailed deer presence (Dawe et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change is the primary driver of white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) range expansion at the northern extent of its range; land use is secondary

Dawe

Boutin

2016

Ecology and Evolution

106

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Quantifying the relative influence of multiple mechanisms driving recent range expansion of non‐native species is essential for predicting future changes and for informing adaptation and management plans to protect native species. White‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) have been expanding their range into the North American boreal forest over the last half of the 20th century. This has already altered predator–prey dynamics in Alberta, Canada, where the distribution likely reaches the northern extent of its continuous range. Although current white‐tailed deer distribution is explained by both climate and human land use, the influence each factor had on the observed range expansion would depend on the spatial and temporal pattern of these changes. Our objective was to quantify the relative importance of land use and climate change as drivers of white‐tailed deer range expansion and to predict decadal changes in white‐tailed deer distribution in northern Alberta for the first half of the 21st century. An existing species distribution model was used to predict past decadal distributions of white‐tailed deer which were validated using independent data. The effects of climate and land use change were isolated by comparing predictions under theoretical “no‐change between decades” scenarios, for each factor, to predictions under observed climate and land use change. Climate changes led to more than 88%, by area, of the increases in probability of white‐tailed deer presence across all decades. The distribution is predicted to extend 100 km further north across the northeastern Alberta boreal forest as climate continues to change over the first half of the 21st century.

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“…Habitat-quality modules take the form of a series of matrices (e.g., Table 2) that estimate a habitat-quality index relative to the simulated vegetation type and age class at any point on the landscape. Our nutritional resources matrices were taken directly from Whitman et al (2017), whereas our predation risk and disease matrices were based on Fisher et al (2016) and Dawe et al (2014). Our nutritional resources matrices were taken directly from Whitman et al (2017), whereas our predation risk and disease matrices were based on Fisher et al (2016) and Dawe et al (2014).…”

Section: Model Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Wolves are the primary predator of caribou, and their diet and habitat associations are variable (Latham et al 2011b) and difficult to predict in the context of a changing climate. Thus, we projected the future distribution of white-tailed deer habitat, a proxy for wolf predation and disease risk, based on relationships published in Fisher et al (2016) and Dawe et al (2014). White-tailed deer, an important prey species for wolves (Latham et al 2011b), are expected to increase in distribution and abundance as the climate warms (Dawe and Boutin 2016).…”

Section: Habitat-quality Modules and Inputsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential impacts of climate change on the habitat of boreal woodland caribou

et al. 2018

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2018. Potential impacts of climate change on the habitat of boreal woodland caribou. Ecosphere 9(10):Abstract. Boreal woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) are currently listed as threatened in Canada, with populations in the province of Alberta expected to decline as much as 50 percent over the next 8-15 yr. We assessed the future of caribou habitat across a region of northeast Alberta using a model of habitat-quality and projections of future climate from three general circulation models. We used mapped climatic and topo-edaphic properties to project future upland vegetation cover and a fire simulation model to project the frequency and extent of wildfires. Based on those projections, we quantified the future habitat of caribou according to estimates of nutritional resources and predation risk derived from vegetation cover type and stand age. Grassland vegetation covered up to half of the study area by the 2080s, expanding from <1% in the present and contributing to a significant contraction in mixedwood and coniferous forests. This change in vegetation would increase the risk of predation and disease, as habitat becomes more suitable for white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and, consequently, gray wolves (Canis lupus). Borne out, these changes would severely compromise the long-term persistence of caribou in the boreal forest of Alberta.

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Influence of climate and human land use on the distribution of white-tailed deer (Odocoileusvirginianus) in the western boreal forest

Cited by 70 publications

References 51 publications

Influence of body mass and environmental conditions on winter mortality risk of a northern ungulate: Evidence for a late‐winter survival bottleneck

Influence of body mass and environmental conditions on winter mortality risk of a northern ungulate: Evidence for a late‐winter survival bottleneck

Climate change is the primary driver of white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) range expansion at the northern extent of its range; land use is secondary

Potential impacts of climate change on the habitat of boreal woodland caribou

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