Influence of Forecast Accuracy of Photovoltaic Power Output on Facility Planning and Operation of Microgrid under 30 min Power Balancing Control

Kato, Tatsuya; Sone, Akihito; Shimakage, Toyonari; Suzuoki, Yasuo

doi:10.1541/ieejpes.132.350

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…With the actual values of the clearness index, which is the ratio of available solar radiation and the extraterrestrial solar radiation, the predicted solar radiation from the weather classification [25,26], predicted air temperature, and global solar radiation at the forecast points as the input data, they estimated the integrated global solar radiation [27].…”

Section: Forecasting Using a Physical Model This Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Technologies for estimation and forecasting of photovoltaic generation output supporting stable operation of electric power system

Yatsubo

Miyake

Takada

2018

IEEJ Transactions Elec Engng

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In recent years, Japan has rapidly extended its use of electricity obtained via photovoltaic (PV) generation. When the proportion of PV in the generation mix was small, its unpredictable output fluctuations had little effect on the supply and demand operation. However, as the role of PV in grid supply grows, predicting these fluctuations becomes increasingly necessary to ensure stable and economical operation of the electric power system. In this study, we discuss the current approaches of estimating and forecasting the PV output. PrefaceElectricity supply networks must balance the supply capacity with the fluctuating demand. Capacity is adjusted by bringing power stations on-and off-line and changing the power generated. However, the price of electricity from different units varies according to the generation method used and, therefore, it is necessary to seek the most economical combination at any demand level [1].Recent years have seen an expansion in the role played by renewable energy in Japan as the country attempts to build a low-carbon society. These renewable energy sources are clean and sustainable and do not emit greenhouse gases, but their output fluctuates in response to the weather conditions, posing challenges to the stability of the supply system. Photovoltaic (PV) generation is an example of the most widely deployed renewable source, so the transmission departments of power companies are investigating and deploying various measures to support demand/supply balancing in a system with a large PV component [2].In this study, we discuss the challenges that this poses and the approaches currently being pursued. However, the generation units that can be directly observed by telemetry from the central load dispatching center of a power company are limited to those interconnected with power lines of 60 kV or greater, which excludes most of the grid-connected PV. New techniques are therefore needed to monitor (estimate) the power generated by PV units. Necessity of Estimating and Forecasting PV outputIn the case of PV, abrupt fluctuations in output can be caused by short-term changes in weather conditions. These are too brief to be predicted from the daily weather forecast alone. Load balancing requires thermal power stations, hydroelectric generation, and pumped storage to be ramped up or run down to compensate for these abrupt fluctuations in the PV output.With the high penetration of PV, the grid operators may no longer be able to ensure constant power supply because thermal and hydroelectric generation constitutes a smaller proportion of the generation mix.In particular, mid-merit-order thermal stations, which play a key role in supply balancing, require several hours to bring the power units off or on line, making it necessary to evolve precise shortterm forecasting of PV output and ensure low power generation costs. PV Output Estimation TechnologyThe output of a PV unit can be calculated by multiplying the solar radiation intensity at the installation location by the conversion efficiency of the P...

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Section: Forecasting Using a Physical Model This Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Technologies for estimation and forecasting of photovoltaic generation output supporting stable operation of electric power system

Yatsubo

Miyake

Takada

2018

IEEJ Transactions Elec Engng

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“…The market price data used in this study is presented in Table IV. This data referred to the market price of power utilities in Japan [6]. The CPU time taken to this optimization was within 20s.…”

Section: B Grid-connected Operationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic optimal schedule management method for microgrid system considering forecast errors of renewable power generations

Sobu

2012

2012 IEEE International Conference on Power System Technology (POWERCON)

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This paper proposes the dynamic optimal schedule management method for an isolated or grid-connected microgrid system with renewable power generations such as PV systems and wind power systems, and with back-up and storage sources such as micro-turbine generators and electricity storage, which is able to consider forecast errors with uncertainties of solar radiation, wind speed and local user demands. The energy management system (EMS) structure for optimization in terms of the economic and stable operation in the microgrid is proposed. Optimization problem for the power from micro-turbine generators or the grid and electricity storage in EMS is resolved by dynamic programming (DP) and equal incremental fuel cost method.The proposed method is confirmed by case study that used forecast data and realization data of renewable power generations and local user demands. In conclusion, this paper presented a practicable method for the operation of a microgrid.Index Terms-Microgrid, distributed generator, renewable generation, forecast error, energy management system, dynamic economic dispatch, dynamic programming.

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Building Power Demand Estimation on Unusual Days Considering Facility Operation Status and Number of Occupants

Sato

Yamaguchi

2022

IEEJ Trans. IA

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Influence of Forecast Accuracy of Photovoltaic Power Output on Facility Planning and Operation of Microgrid under 30 min Power Balancing Control

Cited by 3 publications

References 8 publications

Technologies for estimation and forecasting of photovoltaic generation output supporting stable operation of electric power system

Technologies for estimation and forecasting of photovoltaic generation output supporting stable operation of electric power system

Dynamic optimal schedule management method for microgrid system considering forecast errors of renewable power generations

Building Power Demand Estimation on Unusual Days Considering Facility Operation Status and Number of Occupants

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