Influence of Greenhouse Warming on Tropical Cyclone Frequency

Yoshimura, Jun; Sugi, Masato; Noda, Akira

doi:10.2151/jmsj.84.405

Cited by 113 publications

(103 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…High-resolution downscaling simulations over the North Atlantic support this relative SST change hypothesis for TC frequency of occurrence (Knutson et al 2008). In these simulations, the SST threshold for TC genesis increases with tropical warming (see also Yoshimura et al 2006). Equipped with a detailed knowledge of tropical SST patterns, we discuss their influence on TC based on the TC potential intensity (PI) index of Emanuel (1986).…”

Section: Implications For Tropical Cyclone Changementioning

confidence: 81%

Global Warming Pattern Formation: Sea Surface Temperature and Rainfall*

et al. 2010

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Spatial variations in sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall changes over the tropics are investigated based on ensemble simulations for the first half of the twenty-first century under the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario A1B with coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Despite a GHG increase that is nearly uniform in space, pronounced patterns emerge in both SST and precipitation. Regional differences in SST warming can be as large as the tropical-mean warming. Specifically, the tropical Pacific warming features a conspicuous maximum along the equator and a minimum in the southeast subtropics. The former is associated with westerly wind anomalies whereas the latter is linked to intensified southeast trade winds, suggestive of wind-evaporation-SST feedback. There is a tendency for a greater warming in the northern subtropics than in the southern subtropics in accordance with asymmetries in trade wind changes. Over the equatorial Indian Ocean, surface wind anomalies are easterly, the thermocline shoals, and the warming is reduced in the east, indicative of Bjerknes feedback. In the midlatitudes, ocean circulation changes generate narrow banded structures in SST warming. The warming is negatively correlated with wind speed change over the tropics and positively correlated with ocean heat transport change in the northern extratropics. A diagnostic method based on the ocean mixed layer heat budget is developed to investigate mechanisms for SST pattern formation.Tropical precipitation changes are positively correlated with spatial deviations of SST warming from the tropical mean. In particular, the equatorial maximum in SST warming over the Pacific anchors a band of pronounced rainfall increase. The gross moist instability follows closely relative SST change as equatorial wave adjustments flatten upper-tropospheric warming. The comparison with atmospheric simulations in response to a spatially uniform SST warming illustrates the importance of SST patterns for rainfall change, an effect overlooked in current discussion of precipitation response to global warming. Implications for the global and regional response of tropical cyclones are discussed.

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Section: Implications For Tropical Cyclone Changementioning

confidence: 81%

Global Warming Pattern Formation: Sea Surface Temperature and Rainfall*

et al. 2010

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“…Most glaring is its dimensional inconsistency. Moreover, recent studies by Nolan et al (2007, hereafter N07) and Nolan and Rappin (2008, hereafter N08) showed that the index predicted an increase in genesis in an environment of increasing SST, whereas numerous GCM simulations with and without regional downscaling show a general decrease in genesis with increasing SST due to global warming (Sugi et al, 2002;Yoshimura et al, 2006;Bengtsson et al, 2007;Emanuel et al, 2008;Knutson et al, 2008), albeit with much regional variability.…”

Section: A Pseudo-indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recent studies (Sugi et al, 2002;Oouchi et al, 2006;Yoshimura et al, 2006;Bengtsson et al, 2007) have utilized GCMs to reproduce TC activity and to predict the level of TC activity in warmer climates. To improve upon the coarse resolution employed by GCMs, regional downscaling, in which a regional model is driven by GCM boundary conditions, has been applied to the problem (Knutson and Manabe, 1998;Knutson and Tuleya, 2004;Knutson et al, 2007Knutson et al, , 2008.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Thermodynamic control of tropical cyclogenesis in environments of radiative‐convective equilibrium with shear

Rappin

Nolan

Emanuel

2010

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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The potential for tropical cyclone formation from a pre-existing disturbance is further explored with high-resolution simulations of cyclogenesis in idealized, tropical environments. These idealized environments are generated from simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium with fixed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), imposed mean surface winds, and an imposed profile of vertical wind shear. The propensity for tropical cyclogenesis in these environments is measured in two ways: first, in the period of time required for a weak, mid-level circulation to transition to a developing tropical cyclone; and second, from the value of an incubation parameter that incorporates environmental measures of mid-level saturation deficit and thermodynamic disequilibrium between the atmosphere and ocean. Conditions of tropospheric warming can be produced from increased SSTs or from increased mean surface winds; in either case, the time to genesis increases with atmospheric warming. As these parameters are varied, the incubation parameter is found to be highly correlated with changes in the time to genesis.The high resolution (3 km) of these simulations permits analysis of changes in tropical cyclogenesis under warming conditions at the vortex scale. For increasing SST, increased mid-level saturation deficits (dryness) are the primary reason for slowing or preventing genesis. For environments with increased surface wind, it is the decreased thermodynamic disequilibrium between the atmosphere and ocean that delays or prevents development. An additional effect in both cases is a decoupling of the low-level and mid-level vortices, primarily as a result of increased advecting flow at the altitude of the mid-level vortex, which is linked to the height of the freezing level.

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“…There is still an uncertainty about the future changes in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity [Oouchi et al, 2006;Yoshimura et al, 2006;Bengtsson et al, 2006]. Coarse resolution GCMs are not able to represent typical inner structures of tropical cyclones which results in underestimation of intensities [e.g., Krishnamurti et al, 1989;Camargo and Sobel, 2004].…”

Section: Predicted Future Changes In Cyclone Frequency and Intensitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional model simulation of North Atlantic cyclones: Present climate and idealized response to increased sea surface temperature

Semmler¹,

Varghese²,

McGrath³

et al. 2008

J. Geophys. Res.

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[1] The influence of an increased sea surface temperature (SST) on the frequency and intensity of cyclones over the North Atlantic is investigated using two data sets from simulations with the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA3. The model domain comprises large parts of the North Atlantic and the adjacent continents. RCA3 is driven by reanalysis data for May to December 1985-2000 at the lateral and lower boundaries, using SST and lateral boundary temperatures. A realistic interannual variation in tropical storm and hurricane counts is simulated. In an idealized sensitivity experiment, SSTs and boundary condition temperatures at all levels are increased by 1 K to ensure that we can distinguish the SST from other factors influencing the development of cyclones. An increase in the count of strong hurricanes is simulated. There is not much change in the location of hurricanes. Generally weaker changes are seen in the extratropical region and for the less extreme events. Increases of 9% in the count of extratropical cyclones and 39% in the count of tropical cyclones with wind speeds of at least 18 m/s are found.

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Influence of Greenhouse Warming on Tropical Cyclone Frequency

Cited by 113 publications

References 37 publications

Global Warming Pattern Formation: Sea Surface Temperature and Rainfall*

Global Warming Pattern Formation: Sea Surface Temperature and Rainfall*

Thermodynamic control of tropical cyclogenesis in environments of radiative‐convective equilibrium with shear

Regional model simulation of North Atlantic cyclones: Present climate and idealized response to increased sea surface temperature

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