“…Spatial structure in this part of the range therefore appears to be modulated by two drift-related factorsa founder event in San Dimas Canyon has caused rapid divergence after translocation from the upper San Gabriel River, while at the same time, greater retention of shared F I G U R E 4 Results for the direct and logistic regression approaches to estimating the posterior probability of the different scenarios for each set of DIYABC analyses (a-d). The x-axis represents the number of simulated data sets closest to the observed data, and the y-axis denotes the median posterior probability for a given scenario (Dettinger, 2011(Dettinger, , 2013, changes in stream morphology and connectivity over the past century (Thompson et al, 2010;USFWS 2017), and in recent decades, increased incidence of catastrophic fires and associated debris flows (Moody, Shakesby, Robichaud, Cannon, & Martion, 2013;Steel, Safford, & Viers, 2015;Syphard et al, 2007;Westerling et al, 2006). Wholesale species decline may be progressing through a ratcheting effect (Birkeland, 2004), as reduced capacity to offset the genetic effects of bottleneck cycles is further compromised by the increasing severity of the environmental factors that create them, many of which are predicted to worsen with climate change (Dettinger, 2011;Seager et al, 2007;Westerling et al, 2006).…”