Influence of Hail Suppression on the Hail Trend in Serbia

Abstract

A technology assessment of the future potential of hail suppression and all its possible ramifications in the United States in future years has included an attempt to define the current status of hail suppression. Hail suppression is at a stage in which the socioeconomic impacts of its use and the means to optimize its future utilization can be adequately treated. The estimation of a wide range of future suppression capabilities was based on the current status, which was defined after inspecting three sources of information: 1) results from preliminary evaluations of six recent projects, 2) findings on four published assessments of weather modification, and 3) results from two opinion surveys. This investigation indicates: 1) scientific beliefs about existing capabilities are widely different, with the majority of experts believing there is no capability; 2) the published reviews are optimistic but largely nondefinitive; and 3) the results of five of six recent suppression projects show suppression levels of 20-50%, but the results are largely not significant at the 5% level. This difference between average beliefs of experts and the results of recent projects suggests the need for an extensive investigation of the data and results of these recent projects.

Assessing average annual air temperature trends using the Mann–Kendall test in Kosovo

“…The Mann-Kendall test is widely used in analysis of climatologic time series; for example, temperature and precipitation (Karmeshu 2012), extreme temperatures (wibig and Glowicki 2002), hail (e.g., Gavrilov et al 2010Gavrilov et al , 2013, aridity , evapotranspiration (Tabari et al 2011), and atmospheric deposition (Drapela and Drapelova 2011), and also in hydrological time series (yue and wang 2004) and other geophysical time series, such as soil freezing and thawing (Sinha and Cherkauer 2007) because it is simple and robust, and it can cope with missing values and values below the detection limit.…”

Spatial analysis of air temperature and its impact on the sustainable development of mountain tourism in Central and Western Serbia

“…(4), the probability p takes values between 0 and 100 in %. In fact, p is used to test the level of confidence in the hypothesis (Gavrilov et al, 2010(Gavrilov et al, , 2011(Gavrilov et al, , 2013(Gavrilov et al, , 2015. If the computed value p is lower than the chosen significance level, α (e. g., α=5%), the H 0 (there is no trend) should be rejected, and the H a (there is a significant trend) should be accepted; and if p is greater than the significance level, the H 0 cannot be rejected.…”

Influence of hail suppression on the hail trend in Vojvodina, Serbia

“…Finally, these values compose a time series of hail that could still be statistically processed. Up until now, the work by Gavrilov et al (2010) was the only research on the efficiency of hail suppression in Serbia that used the same time series on hail as this study. The lack of other kinds of data on hail (such as the total number of hailstones, the distribution of hailstones per diameter, the maximum diameter, the total mass or hailstone kinetic energy, hailfall duration, etc.…”

“…The same name is used in the work by Mesinger and Mesinger (1992), but here the above mentioned method is partly modified (Radinović, 1970 andRadinović, 1972) for the purpose of hail suppression by silver iodide seeding in the eastern part of Yugoslavia. One of the latest public texts with the description of hail suppression method by silver iodide seeding that is used in Vojvodina may be found in the work by Gavrilov et al (2010). Both the original Soviet method and the modified Soviet method that is applied in Vojvodina are based on a well known seeding hypothesis: by seeding hail bearing cloud with silver iodide crystallisation nuclei, the number of potential deposition cores is increasing, since silver iodide also crystallises in a hexagonal grid like ice; thus, its small crystals will serve as additional deposition cores around which molecules of (supercooled) water vapor will collect while it is expected that ice crystals grow on additional cores as on natural cores, so that each hail grain will grow less and melt as it falls down and smaller sized hail and/or rain will fall instead of larger hail.…”