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The global energy market has significantly developed in recent years; proof of this is the creation and promotion of smart grids and technical advances in energy commercialization and transmission. Specifically in the Brazilian context, with the recent modernization of the electricity sector, energy trading prices, previously published on a weekly frequency, are now available on an hourly domain. In this context, the definition and forecasting of prices become increasingly important factors for the economic and financial viability of energy projects. In this scenario of changes in the local regulatory framework, there is a lack of publications based on the new hourly prices in Brazil. This paper presents, in a pioneering way, the Dynamic Time Scan Forecasting (DTSF) method for forecasting hourly energy prices in Brazil. This method searches for similarity patterns in time series and, in previous investigations, showed competitive advantages concerning established forecasting methods. This research aims to test the accuracy of the DTSF method against classical statistical models and machine learning. We used the short-term prices of electricity in Brazil, made available by the Electric Energy Commercialization Chamber. The new DTSF model showed the best predictive performance compared to both the statistical and machine learning models. The DTSF performance was superior considering the evaluation metrics utilized in this paper. We verified that the predictions made by the DTSF showed less variability compared to the other models. Finally, we noticed that there is not an ideal model for all predictive 24 steps ahead forecasts, but there are better models at certain times of the day.
The global energy market has significantly developed in recent years; proof of this is the creation and promotion of smart grids and technical advances in energy commercialization and transmission. Specifically in the Brazilian context, with the recent modernization of the electricity sector, energy trading prices, previously published on a weekly frequency, are now available on an hourly domain. In this context, the definition and forecasting of prices become increasingly important factors for the economic and financial viability of energy projects. In this scenario of changes in the local regulatory framework, there is a lack of publications based on the new hourly prices in Brazil. This paper presents, in a pioneering way, the Dynamic Time Scan Forecasting (DTSF) method for forecasting hourly energy prices in Brazil. This method searches for similarity patterns in time series and, in previous investigations, showed competitive advantages concerning established forecasting methods. This research aims to test the accuracy of the DTSF method against classical statistical models and machine learning. We used the short-term prices of electricity in Brazil, made available by the Electric Energy Commercialization Chamber. The new DTSF model showed the best predictive performance compared to both the statistical and machine learning models. The DTSF performance was superior considering the evaluation metrics utilized in this paper. We verified that the predictions made by the DTSF showed less variability compared to the other models. Finally, we noticed that there is not an ideal model for all predictive 24 steps ahead forecasts, but there are better models at certain times of the day.
The objective of this paper is to assess an economic dispatch considering a power system portfolio, which includes predominant amount of hydro power and increasing quantities of intermittent renewables in relation to the total electric capacity. With growing importance of intermittent wind and solar generation taking part into power systems worldwide, there is need for greater chronological resolution to estimate the flexibility of the power system to offer firm capacity. In this way, a linear optimization model operating hourly is developed to calculate the minimum power system cost, while stablishing the capacity allocation to meet the projected load throughout one-year simulation, as an estimation of how the hourly economic dispatch impacts the scheduling of generators belonging to a power system with this portfolio composition. A central focus is how to operate the available hydro capacity to back up intermittent renewables, evaluating the physical hydro operating constraints, monthly energy balance and maximum power availability. A case study was simulated based on the Brazil's power system configuration, showing that existing hydro capacity provide hourly flexibility to back-up intermittent renewables, potentially saving 1.2 Billion R$, about 3.6% of total system cost referred to 2019. It is worthwhile to realize that the developed methodology can be employed to other power systems with similar capacity portfolio structure for the purpose of calculating its optimum allocation for a specified region and target year.
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