Abstract. Continental water storage is a key variable in the Earth system that has never been adequately monitored globally. Since variations in water storage on land affect the time dependent component of Earth's gravity field, the NASA Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission, which will accurately map the gravity field at 2-4 week intervals, may soon provide global data on temporal changes in continental water storage. This study characterizes water storage changes in 20 drainage basins ranging in size from 130,000 to 5,782,000 km 2 and uses estimates of uncertainty in the GRACE technique to determine in which basins water storage changes may be detectable by GRACE and how this detectability may vary in space and time. Results indicate that GRACE will likely detect changes in water storage in most of the basins on monthly or longer time steps and that instrument errors, atmospheric modeling errors, and the magnitude of the variations themselves will be the primary controls on the relative accuracy of the GRACE-derived estimates.
IntroductionSoil moisture, groundwater, snow and ice, lake and river water, and vegetative water are the principal components of continental (or terrestrial, total) water storage. Although it constitutes only about 3.5% of the water in the hydrologic cycle, continental water storage has a tremendous influence on climate and weather as well as being fundamental to life on Frozen water and liquid water stored below soils in aquifers play important roles in the Earth system and hold practical significance for society. Seasonal melts replenish soils and streams, while groundwater provides base flow to streams and sustains deep-rooted plants through periods of drought. Predicting the magnitudes of spring melts and the availability of groundwater is critical for natural hazard preparedness and for agricultural and domestic water resources management.Mass redistribution associated with changes in water storage on land has additional effects on the Earth system beyond those described above. For example, Chao and O'Connor [1988] and Kuehne and Wilson [1991] showed that changes in terrestrial water storage effect Earth rotation variations, and Chen et al. [1998] showed that the redistribution of water from the continents to the oceans is the primary driver of sea level ]. Estimates of the absolute magnitude of water storage would not be obtainable, and the technique would integrate changes in soil moisture, snow, groundwater, and the other components of continental water storage to produce an estimate of the net change in total continental water storage. In other words, GRACE will provide the spatial distribution of AS, the change in total water storage, during the time period A T. Note that in this paper, the terms "variations in water storage" and "changes in water storage" are used interchangeably to denote AS. This paper investigates the potential of GRACE to provide estimates of continental water storage variations by comparing simulated fields of water storage ...