Influence of Model Bias on Simulating North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature During the Mid‐Pliocene

Song, Zhaoyang; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun; Zhang, Yuming

doi:10.1029/2018pa003397

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 53 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Recent terrestrial mPWP data-model comparisons highlight that PlioMIP2 models cannot reproduce the full extent of the mPWP warming that data suggest ( 2 , 21 , 44 ). Likewise, in both the pelagic and terrestrial realm, reconstruction of the full seasonal cycle is challenging due to proxy limitations ( 2 , 21 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world

de Winter,

Tindall,

Johnson

et al. 2024

Sci. Adv.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Documenting the seasonal temperature cycle constitutes an essential step toward mitigating risks associated with extreme weather events in a future warmer world. The mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (mPWP), 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago, featured global temperatures approximately 3°C above preindustrial levels. It represents an ideal period for directed paleoclimate reconstructions equivalent to model projections for 2100 under moderate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-4.5. Here, seasonal clumped isotope analyses of fossil mollusk shells from the North Sea are presented to test Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project 2 outcomes. Joint data and model evidence reveals enhanced summer warming (+4.3° ± 1.0°C) compared to winter (+2.5° ± 1.5°C) during the mPWP, equivalent to SSP2-4.5 outcomes for future climate. We show that Arctic amplification of global warming weakens mid-latitude summer circulation while intensifying seasonal contrast in temperature and precipitation, leading to an increased risk of summer heat waves and other extreme weather events in Europe’s future.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world

de Winter,

Tindall,

Johnson

et al. 2024

Sci. Adv.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…6). Previous studies (Brierley and Fedorov, 2016;Otto-Bliesner et al, 2017;Song et al, 2018) showed that the closing of the Arctic gateways led to warmer North Atlantic SSTs in the mid-Pliocene experiment, when compared to the pre-industrial level. However, the Arctic gateways are closed in all PlioMIP2 simulations analysed here, but not all of them simulate the warm North Atlantic SSTs as reconstructed in the PRISM4 data set (Foley and Dowsett, 2019).…”

mentioning

confidence: 95%

“…The PlioMIP1 simulations (e.g. Chan et al, 2011;Bragg et al, 2012;Contoux et al, 2012;Kamae and Ueda, 2012;Stepanek and Lohmann, 2012;Zhang et al, 2012;Chandler et al, 2013;Rosenbloom et al, 2013) showed that the global annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) was 1.9-3.6 • C warmer than the pre-industrial level in the multi-model ensemble mean (Haywood et al, 2013), whereas the strength of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) was similar to the pre-industrial level (Zhang et al, 2013a). However, when compared to marine (Dowsett et al, 2012(Dowsett et al, , 2013 and terrestrial reconstructions (Salzmann et al 2013), there was a large model-data discrepancy (Haywood et al, 2013) in the North Atlantic and the land realm of the Northern Hemisphere.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the magnitude of the intensification in the AMOC due to the closed Arctic gateways seems highly model dependent. Some simulations suggest that the AMOC is enhanced by ∼ 2 Sv due to the closed Bering Strait (Brierley and Fedorov, 2016;Otto-Bliesner et al, 2017;Song et al, 2018), whereas some unpublished simulations in PlioMIP2 show much larger responses. Without consistent sensitivity experiments for the Arctic gateways, it remains difficult to reveal the range of model spread on the gateways' impacts in PlioMIP2.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Mid-Pliocene Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation simulated in PlioMIP2

Zhang

Guo

et al. 2021

Clim. Past

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. In the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2), coupled climate models have been used to simulate an interglacial climate during the mid-Piacenzian warm period (mPWP; 3.264 to 3.025 Ma). Here, we compare the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), poleward ocean heat transport and sea surface warming in the Atlantic simulated with these models. In PlioMIP2, all models simulate an intensified mid-Pliocene AMOC. However, there is no consistent response in the simulated Atlantic ocean heat transport nor in the depth of the Atlantic overturning cell. The models show a large spread in the simulated AMOC maximum, the Atlantic ocean heat transport and the surface warming in the North Atlantic. Although a few models simulate a surface warming of ∼ 8–12 ∘C in the North Atlantic, similar to the reconstruction from Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) version 4, most models appear to underestimate this warming. The large model spread and model–data discrepancies in the PlioMIP2 ensemble do not support the hypothesis that an intensification of the AMOC, together with an increase in northward ocean heat transport, is the dominant mechanism for the mid-Pliocene warm climate over the North Atlantic.

show abstract

Impact of oceanic gateway and CO2 changes on the East Asian summer monsoon during the mid-pliocene in a coupled general circulation model

Song

Zhang

2022

Front. Environ. Sci.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Pliocene epoch from about 5.3 million to about 2.6 million years before present is the most recent period of sustained global warmth similar to the near future projections. The restriction of the Indonesian Passages, the closure of the Panama Seaway and declining atmospheric CO2-concentration are suggested to have caused the global climate evolution to the present-day condition. Here, we present the Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions along with sensitivity experimental results from a coupled General Circulation Model. We find that, in terms of SST, simulated model sensitivity to CO2 is in good agreement with the Pliocene reconstructions in most regions except the North Atlantic and Arctic. This suggests the necessity for improved boundary conditions and a possible underestimation of internal climate feedback at the high-latitudes. The responses of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) to the oceanic gateway and CO2 are investigated. Influences of declining CO2 on the EASM are more prominent. An intensification of the intensity of EASM by ∼50% is simulated in response to the declining CO2, which is largely attributed to the strengthened land-ocean thermal contrast, while the precipitation decreases by ∼4.8%. In contrast, the restriction of two seaway changes only drives relatively weak changes with respect to wind speed and precipitation. A water vapor budget analysis suggests that the reduced atmospheric moisture content due to decreasing CO2 significantly contributes to precipitation response.

show abstract

Influence of Model Bias on Simulating North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature During the Mid‐Pliocene

Cited by 3 publications

References 53 publications

Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world

Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world

Mid-Pliocene Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation simulated in PlioMIP2

Impact of oceanic gateway and CO2 changes on the East Asian summer monsoon during the mid-pliocene in a coupled general circulation model

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About