Influence of modeling choices and prior information on the Bayesian assessment of a reinforced concrete bridge

Abstract

A lot of bridges are aging and reaching the anticipated service life. To gain insight in their remaining resistance, inspections and measurements can be performed. The resulting information and data can be used to update variables in the degradation models of these bridges. To account for spatial variation, degradation variables can be modeled with random fields. The random fields of the degradation variables are updated based on a Bayesian inference procedure, where different types of heterogenous and indirect data are accounted for. Nevertheless, in this procedure, various assumptions need to be made, such as the quantification of measurement uncertainty, the structural and degradation model to be used, the prior distributions of the variables of interest, and so forth. These assumptions can influence the results of the Bayesian inference. Hence, in this work, it will be investigated what the influence is of different assumptions and how they affect the localization and quantification of damage. This will be done by application to a reinforced concrete girder bridge. The main conclusions are that the model used in the Bayesian inference procedure should resemble the actual structure as good as possible and that simplifications that are allowed in the design can lead to posterior distributions deviating a lot from the actual situation. Moreover, it is illustrated how information from visual observations can be included in the definition of the prior distributions and how this has a beneficial effect on the posterior predictions.