Influence of Multiyear Variability on the Observed Regime Shifts in Philippine Climatology

Basconcillo, Joseph; Duran, Ger Anne W.; Maratas, Shalou-Lea A.; Moon, Il‐Ju; Juanillo, Edna L.; Cayanan, Esperanza O.

doi:10.1007/s13143-022-00298-x

Asia-Pac J Atmos Sci

2022

DOI: 10.1007/s13143-022-00298-x

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Influence of Multiyear Variability on the Observed Regime Shifts in Philippine Climatology

Joseph Basconcillo

Ger Anne W. Duran

Shalou-Lea A. Maratas

et al.

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Cited by 2 publications

References 43 publications

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Decreasing Quiescence of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific

Duran

Basconcillo

2023

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Due to less tropical cyclone (TC) occurrences, the climatology of the quiescent TC season (i.e., March-April-May, MAM) in the Western North Pacific (WNP) is less understood when compared to the more active season (i.e., June-November). Here we show observational evidence of significantly decreasing TC quiescence during MAM that can be attributed to more Central Pacific El Niño events from 2002 to 2022. A Central Pacific El Niño is related to an asymmetric sea surface temperature (SST) pattern where warm (cool) SST anomalies are concentrated in the central (western) Pacific, which consequently contributes to the overall decrease in TC quiescence in MAM. Such anomalous SST pattern prompts the Western North Pacific Subtropical High to expand westward, creating a conducive large-scale environment for TC development and allowing TCs to move closer to the landmass, which ultimately leads to an increasing cost of TC-associated damages during the quiescent season. Our study provides new insights into the decreasing TC quiescence and TC climatology in the WNP during MAM, which is ultimately expected to contribute to disaster risk reduction in the region.

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Decreasing Quiescence of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific

Duran

Basconcillo

2023

SOLA

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Development of Local Southwest Monsoon Index in the Philippines

Manauis,

Goliat,

Basconcillo

et al. 2024

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Based on previously reported Asian-Australian Monsoon indices, this study characterizes the intensity of the southwest (SW) monsoon associated rainfall and its variability in different subregions of the western Philippines. Reanalysis and satellite-based datasets are utilized to derive these monsoon indices, which include the southerly and westerly wind shear indices, and outgoing longwave radiation-, and mean sea level pressure-based indices, spanning from 1991 to 2020. Subsequently, these indices were integrated to develop a local SW monsoon index (LSWMI) in the Philippines, which was compared and assessed with climatological gridded-and ground-based rainfall datasets to quantitatively describe the spatiotemporal dynamics of the SW monsoon season over the 30-year period. Results show that the proposed LSWMI can sufficiently capture the occurrences of heavy rainfall events in western Philippines. Moreover, the LSWMI is also capable in describing the evolution (onset, peak and decay) and distinct spatiotemporal characteristics of the SW monsoon, as it propagates from northern to southern Philippines. Overall findings demonstrate the significance of utilizing the LSWMI in characterizing and quantifying the SW monsoon, which ultimately provides new insights on advancing the monsoon monitoring and forecasting capabilities in the country.

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Influence of Multiyear Variability on the Observed Regime Shifts in Philippine Climatology

Cited by 2 publications

References 43 publications

Decreasing Quiescence of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific

Decreasing Quiescence of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific

Development of Local Southwest Monsoon Index in the Philippines

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