Influence of North Atlantic Oscillation on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall in Relation to Quasi-Binneal Oscillation

Bhatla, R.; Singh, Abhay Kumar; Mandal, Bhabani Prasad; Ghosh, Soumik; Pandey, Shriram; Sarkar, Abhijit

doi:10.1007/s00024-016-1306-z

Cited by 28 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…The overall MSES results are in congruence with other studies (Bhatla et al, 2016;Feliks et al, 2013;? ), but so far space and scale variation in the associations between NAO and Indian precipitation has not gained attention.…”

supporting

confidence: 91%

Unraveling the spatial diversity of Indian precipitation teleconnections via nonlinear multi-scale approach

Kurths¹,

Agarwal²,

Marwan³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Abstract. A better understanding of precipitation dynamics in the Indian subcontinent is required since India’s society depends heavily on reliable monsoon forecasts. We introduce a nonlinear, multiscale approach, based on wavelets and event synchronization, for unraveling teleconnection influences on precipitation. We consider those climate patterns with highest relevance for Indian precipitation. Our results suggest significant influences which are not well captured by only the wavelet coherence analysis, the state-of-the-art method in understanding linkages at multiple time scales. We find substantial variation across India and across time scales. In particular, El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mainly influence precipitation in the southeast at interannual and decadal scales, respectively, whereas the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has a strong connection to precipitation particularly in the northern regions. The effect of PDO stretches across the whole country, whereas AMO influences precipitation particularly in the central arid and semi-arid regions. The proposed method provides a powerful approach for capturing the dynamics of precipitation and, hence, helps improving precipitation forecasting.

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supporting

confidence: 91%

Unraveling the spatial diversity of Indian precipitation teleconnections via nonlinear multi-scale approach

Kurths¹,

Agarwal²,

Marwan³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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show abstract

“…In this study, we use the Louvain method which maximizes the modularity to find the optimal community structure in the network. The optimal community structure is a subdivision of the network into non-overlapping groups of nodes, which maximizes the number of within-group edges and minimizes the number of between-group edges (Blondel et al, 2008;Rubinov and Sporns, 2011).…”

Section: Community Detection and The Z − P Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…xy is the sum of the number of the edges (degree) attached to vertex x, and C x is the community to which vertex x is assigned, and the δ function δ(u, v) is 1 if u = v and 0; otherwise, m = 1 Equation (6) is solved using the two-step iterative algorithm proposed by Blondel et al (2008), also known as the Louvain method. The first step consists in optimizing the modularity by permitting only a local modification of communities; in the second step, the communities identified are pooled to assemble a new network of communities.…”

Section: Community Detection and The Z − P Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Unravelling the spatial diversity of Indian precipitation teleconnections via a non-linear multi-scale approach

Kurths

Agarwal

Shukla

et al. 2019

Nonlin. Processes Geophys.

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Abstract. A better understanding of precipitation dynamics in the Indian subcontinent is required since India's society depends heavily on reliable monsoon forecasts. We introduce a non-linear, multiscale approach, based on wavelets and event synchronization, for unravelling teleconnection influences on precipitation. We consider those climate patterns with the highest relevance for Indian precipitation. Our results suggest significant influences which are not well captured by only the wavelet coherence analysis, the state-of-the-art method in understanding linkages at multiple timescales. We find substantial variation across India and across timescales. In particular, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mainly influence precipitation in the south-east at interannual and decadal scales, respectively, whereas the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has a strong connection to precipitation, particularly in the northern regions. The effect of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) stretches across the whole country, whereas the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) influences precipitation particularly in the central arid and semi-arid regions. The proposed method provides a powerful approach for capturing the dynamics of precipitation and, hence, helps improve precipitation forecasting.

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“…Indian Ocean Dipole plays a crucial role in modulating the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) and influences the ENSO–ISMR relationship (Ashok and Zhaoyong, ). Further, spring North Atlantic Oscillation Index is inversely related with the ISMR (Bhatla et al, ). In addition to these, Arctic oscillation and mid tropospheric zonal wind anomaly over cluster region [60°N–70°N; 5°W–55°W] are directly correlated with each other in the winter season and this relationship in turn influences ISMR (Kakade and Kulkarni, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inconsistency in the frequency of rainfall events in the Indian summer monsoon season

Kumar

Naidu

Konatham

2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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In global warming, India is adversely affected by weather extremes. Summer monsoon contributes about 70% of annual mean rainfall to India by mode of an ensemble of synoptic disturbances and intense events. These events bring extreme amounts of rainfall in very few days. We have studied the anomalies of rainfall events for wet days (>0 mm rainfall), dry days (=0 mm), little rainfall days (>0 to <20 mm), moderate rainfall days (≥20 mm to <60 mm), heavy rainfall days (≥ 60 to <100 mm) and very heavy rainfall days (≥ 100 mm) during the period, 1901–1930; 1931–1960; 1961–1990 and 1991–2015 using India Meteorological Department (IMD) rainfall data. In the present scenario, even though an extensive increase in frequency of lows forming in the Bay of Bengal is observed, only a few are intensified into depressions and above stages. Alternatively, monsoon circulation is trailing its strength; therefore extreme (heavy and very heavy rainfall) events came into existence to balance the mean rainfall activity. The rise in these events may be due to an increasing inconsistency of the strength of low‐level jet, an increase of sea surface temperature over the Arabian Sea and dynamic flow of moisture supply to inland from neighbourhood seas. An increase in the frequency of extreme rainfall events is seen over Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Jammu & Kashmir, central Northeast India (CNEI) and west central India (WCI) in the recent years (25 years) compared to previous 9 decades. Whereas, a decrease in the frequencies of little and moderate rainfall events are observed over the parts of the Western Ghats, Northeast India, WCI and CNEI. There is an increasing trend in the inconsistency of daily rainfall activity due to an increase in the frequency of extreme events in the global warming era.

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Influence of North Atlantic Oscillation on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall in Relation to Quasi-Binneal Oscillation

Cited by 28 publications

References 33 publications

Unraveling the spatial diversity of Indian precipitation teleconnections via nonlinear multi-scale approach

Unraveling the spatial diversity of Indian precipitation teleconnections via nonlinear multi-scale approach

Unravelling the spatial diversity of Indian precipitation teleconnections via a non-linear multi-scale approach

Inconsistency in the frequency of rainfall events in the Indian summer monsoon season

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