Influence of solar forcing, climate variability and modes of low-frequency atmospheric variability on summer floods in Switzerland

Peña, Juan Carlos; Schulte, Lothar; Badoux, Alexandre; Barriendos, Mariano; Barrera-Escoda, A.

doi:10.5194/hess-19-3807-2015

Cited by 19 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 65 publications

(103 reference statements)

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“…2,3,4,5,6). Further empirical associations between flood frequency and solar activity in records from the Alpine region and central Spain (Moreno et al, 2008;Peña et al, 2015;Vaquero, 2004;Wirth et al, 2013) as well as the agreement with a flood reconstruction from multiple large European rivers of the last 500 years (Glaser et al, 2010) suggest a larger spatial relevance (central Europe) of the flood signal from the Ammer catchment.…”

Section: Mechanism For a Solar Influence On Flood Frequencymentioning

confidence: 64%

Solar modulation of flood frequency in central Europe during spring and summer on interannual to multi-centennial timescales

Czymzik¹,

Muscheler²,

Brauer³

2016

Clim. Past

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Abstract. Solar influences on climate variability are one of the most controversially discussed topics in climate research. We analyze solar forcing of flood frequency in central Europe during spring and summer on interannual to multi-centennial timescales, integrating daily discharge data of the River Ammer (southern Germany) back to AD 1926 ( ∼ solar cycles 16-23) and the 5500-year flood layer record from varved sediments of the downstream Ammersee. Flood frequency in the River Ammer discharge record is significantly correlated to changes in solar activity when the flood record lags the solar signal by 2-3 years (2-year lag: r = −0.375, p = 0.01; 3-year lag: r = −0.371, p = 0.03). Flood layer frequency in the Ammersee sediment record depicts distinct multi-decadal variations and significant correlations to a total solar irradiance reconstruction (r = −0.4, p < 0.0001) and 14 C production rates (r = 0.37, p < 0.0001), reflecting changes in solar activity. On all timescales, flood frequency is higher when solar activity is reduced. In addition, the configuration of atmospheric circulation associated with periods of increased River Ammer flood frequency broadly resembles that during intervals of reduced solar activity, as expected to be induced by the so-called solar top-down mechanism by model studies. Both atmospheric patterns are characterized by an increase in meridional airflow associated with enhanced atmospheric blocking over central Europe. Therefore, the significant correlations as well as similar atmospheric circulation patterns might provide empirical support for a solar influence on hydroclimate extremes in central Europe during spring and summer by the so-called solar top-down mechanism.

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Section: Mechanism For a Solar Influence On Flood Frequencymentioning

confidence: 64%

Solar modulation of flood frequency in central Europe during spring and summer on interannual to multi-centennial timescales

Czymzik¹,

Muscheler²,

Brauer³

2016

Clim. Past

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“…However, Wilson et al (2010) found that there is a clear tendency for early occurrence of spring floods which is likely due to an earlier snowmelt due to a rise in temperature. The declining trend in the frequency of summer rain-on-snow flood events in Northern and Eastern Europe found in our study can also be likely due to earlier snowmelt, which reduces the number of snow related events in the hydrological summer In the Alps, Schmocker-Fackel and Naef (2010) and Peña et al (2015) found that the frequency of summer flooding in Switzerland has been on the rise in the last four decades and associated the changes to patterns of low-frequency atmospheric variability and corresponding changes in the frequency of heavy precipitation. Similar results are presented by Pekárová et al, (2016) who identified increasing frequency of large floods along the Danube river.…”

mentioning

confidence: 86%

“…In the north of the Alps, a similar weather situation associated with heavy rainfall that lasts for several days, which triggers most of the summer flooding in central Europe defines the flood regime (Böhm and Wetzel, 5 2006). A similar mechanism leads to flooding in the higher mountain ranges, but it can be accompanied by glacier and snowmelt, which enhance the antecedent catchment wetness (Merz and Blöschl, 2003;Parajka et al, 2010, Peña et al 2015.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood type classification and assessment of their past changes across Europe

Hundecha

Parajka

Viglione

2017

Preprint

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Abstract. This study was carried out to establish the characteristics of observed flood events across Europe in the past in terms of their spatial extent and the processes leading up to the events. Daily discharge data from more than 745 stations of 10 the Global Runoff Data Centre were used to identify peak flows at each station for the period 1961-2010. The identified events at the different stations were further analysed to determine whether they form the same flood event, thereby delineating the spatial extent of the flood events. A pan-European hydrological model was employed to estimate a set of catchment hydrological and hydro-meteorological state variables that are relevant in the flood generation process for each of the identified spatially delineated flood events. A subsequent clustering of the events based on the simulated state variables 15 was used to identify the flood generation mechanism of each flood event. Four general flood generation mechanisms were identified: long-rain flood, short-rain flood, snowmelt flood, and rain-on-snow flood. A trend analysis was performed to investigate how the frequency of each of the flood types has changed in time over the investigation period. In order to investigate whether there is a regional and seasonal pattern in the dominant flood generating mechanisms, this analysis was performed separately for winter and summer seasons and five different regions of Europe: Northern, Western, Eastern, 20Southern Europe, and the Alps. Continentally, the total number of flood events didn't show a significant change. However, the frequency of winter long rain events increased significantly while that of summer rain-on-snow events decreased significantly over the investigation period. Regional differences were detected in the dominant flood generating mechanism and the corresponding trends. In Western Europe, the frequency of both winter and summer rainfall events increased significantly. In Northern and Eastern Europe, the frequency of summer rain-on-snow events decreased significantly. In 25 addition, winter short rainfall events increased significantly in Eastern Europe. In the Alps, the frequency of summer short rain events increased significantly.Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi

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“…Interannual to multidecadal variability of heavy precipitation and flood events in the Alpine region are also related to large-scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns. Peña et al (2015) emphasized the role of the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) in generating flood variability in Swiss rivers. The east Atlantic (EA) pattern and SNAO modify the frequency of atmospheric circulation patterns controlling debris flow occurrences in the Swiss Alps (Toreti et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, the variability and predictability of flood occurrences have been addressed in many research studies (e.g., Jacobeit et al, 2003;Czymzik et al, 2010;Peña et al, 2015;Schillereff et al, 2014;Ionita et al, 2008Ionita et al, , 2015.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atmospheric circulation patterns associated with the variability of River Ammer floods: evidence from observed and proxy data

et al. 2016

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Abstract.The relationship between the frequency of River Ammer floods (southern Germany) and atmospheric circulation variability is investigated based on observational Ammer River discharge data back to 1926 and a flood layer time series from varved sediments of the downstream Lake Ammer for the pre-instrumental period back to 1766. A composite analysis reveals that, at synoptic timescales, observed River Ammer floods are associated with enhanced moisture transport from the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean towards the Ammer region, a pronounced trough over western Europe as well as enhanced potential vorticity at upper levels. We argue that this synoptic-scale configuration can trigger heavy precipitation and floods in the Ammer region. Interannual to multidecadal increases in flood frequency, as detected in the instrumental discharge record, are associated with a wave train pattern extending from the North Atlantic to western Asia, with a prominent negative center over western Europe. A similar atmospheric circulation pattern is associated with increases in flood layer frequency in the Lake Ammer sediment record during the pre-instrumental period. We argue that the complete flood layer time series from Lake Ammer sediments covering the last 5500 years contains information about atmospheric circulation variability on interannual to millennial timescales.

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Influence of solar forcing, climate variability and modes of low-frequency atmospheric variability on summer floods in Switzerland

Cited by 19 publications

References 65 publications

Solar modulation of flood frequency in central Europe during spring and summer on interannual to multi-centennial timescales

Solar modulation of flood frequency in central Europe during spring and summer on interannual to multi-centennial timescales

Flood type classification and assessment of their past changes across Europe

Atmospheric circulation patterns associated with the variability of River Ammer floods: evidence from observed and proxy data

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