Influence of the Drug Users Hiv Infection Incidence to the Hiv Morbidity of Minsk Population

Abstract

The HIV epidemic is concentrated mainly among key groups, and people who inject drugs (PWID) have an important place among them. HIV incidence among PWID and the total Minsk population in 2010-2019 fluctuated within the range of 10.27 (2013)-160.76 (2015) cases per 1000 PWID and 9.63 (2012)—41.00 (2015) per 100 000 of Minsk population. Average long-term incidence rates were 51.61 per 1000 PWID and 22.42 per 100 000 of Minsk population, respectively. The analyzed time interval characterized by a long-term trend towards an increase in morbidity in both analyzed groups with an average growth rate of 17.25 % (p < 0.01) and 12.62 % (p < 0.05). There is a direct linear dependence between the HIV incidence in the total Minsk population and the HIV morbidity among PWID (R2 = 0.96, p < 0.01). The presence of autocorrelation in the data series (0.52 and 0.43, respectively) indicates a high potential effectiveness of prevention programs among PWID, which will affect the HIV incidence rates of the total Minsk population also.