Influence of the pace of El Niño decay on tropical cyclone frequency over the western north pacific during decaying El Niño summers

Zhou, Qun; Wei, Lixin

doi:10.1016/j.aosl.2023.100328

Cited by 1 publication

(1 citation statement)

References 35 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Fortunately, the current coupled models tend to better capture the tropical part of the SST anomaly, which is closely associated with PDO. Recent studies demonstrated that the tropical SST gradient has a significant role in modulating the TCF over the WNP in interannual and decadal timescales in the observation [75,76]. Thus, the improvement of the tropical expression of PDO in the coupled model may enhance the decadal predictability of TCF activity, especially over the southeastern part of WNP.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding the Inter-Model Spread of PDO’s Impact on Tropical Cyclone Frequency over the Western North Pacific in CMIP6 Models

Feng,

Cao,

Wang

et al. 2024

Atmosphere

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This work investigates the inter-model diversity of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation’s (PDO) impact on tropical cyclone frequency (TCF) over the Western North Pacific (WNP) from the historical simulation of twenty-two Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. The impact of the PDO is expressed as the TCF difference between the positive and negative PDO phases. The comparison between the models with high PDO skill and low PDO skill shows that the PDO-related sea surface temperature (SST) gradient between the western and central tropical Pacific plays an important role in changing the large-scale atmospheric dynamic fields for TC genesis and, thus, the TCF over the WNP. This SST gradient also significantly contributes to the inter-model spread of PDO’s impact on TCF across the 22 CMIP6 models. We, therefore, stress that the PDO-related eastward SST gradient between the western and central tropical Pacific triggers the lower troposphere westerly and eastward extending of the monsoon trough over the WNP. The moistening of the atmosphere and enhancing ascending motion in the mid-troposphere promote convection, leading to the easterly wind anomaly over the upper troposphere, which reduces the vertical wind shear. Those favorable dynamic conditions consistently promote the TC formation over the southeastern part of the Western North Pacific. Our results highlight that PDO could impact the WNP TCF through its associated tropical SST gradient.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%