Influence of the Paleoclimatic Reconstructions Uncertainty on the Submarine Permafrost Dynamics

Abstract

The estimates of the subsea permafrost sensitivity to the uncertainty of paleoclimatic reconstructions of air temperature and ocean level have been obtained. This was done by using the model for thermophysical processes in the subsea sediments and the scenario for climate changes at the Arctic shelf for the last 400 kyr. This model was forced by four time series of temperature at the sediment top, by using different combinations of air temperature and sea level. The uncertainty coefficient of the response of the permafrost base depth is less than 0,3, with the exception of isolated time intervals and / or the deepest areas of the shelf.