This study presents a case of weakly consolidated strata developed in Dananhu No.7 coal mine. Using a combination of numerical simulation, field measurement comparison, and the critical hydraulic gradient criterion, we investigate the overburden failure and the risk possibility of water–sand mixture inrush during excavation. The following are the principal findings: (1) Weakly consolidated rocks have poor physical characteristics, particularly when they are mudded and disintegrated after encountering water, which may become a favorable source of water–sand inrush; (2) The water-conducting zone develops to a height of 160.5 m with a crack-mining ratio of 15.29 times, extending upward to Toutunhe Formation aquifer. The predictions are consistent with measurements in adjacent mines with similar geological conditions; (3) Cracks without larger subsidence are developed at the front edge of the mining direction, and some parallel stepped cracks behind the goaf could be easily observed. Ground subsidence along the goaf center finally displays a symmetrically wide-gentle U shape; (4) The critical hydraulic gradient of Toutunhe Formation aquifer, aquifer above 3# coal seam, and aquifer of 3#–7# coal seam in Xishanyao Formation is 1.314, 1.351, and 1.380, the actual value is 0.692, 2.089, and 7.418 accordingly. It is inferred water–sand mixture outburst will not occur in Toutunhe Formation aquifer, while the potential risk exists in the aquifers of Xishanyao Formation. Through drainage and depressurization projects, a water–sand mixture outburst accident does not occur during excavation. This study reveals the overburden failure characteristics and the initiation mechanism of water–sand inrush in weakly cemented strata, as well as the internal relationship between them, which provides new research ideas for safe operation in other mining areas with similar geological conditions. The research work has certain practical guiding significance.