Influence of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios on the bioclimatic design strategies of the built environment

Bienvenido-Huertas, David; Rubio-Bellido, Carlos; García, David Marín; Canivell, Jacinto

doi:10.1016/j.scs.2021.103042

Cited by 21 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…These results showed that climate change will vary the effectiveness of natural ventilation in terms of discomfort levels and follow the same tendency as in the study of Bienvenido-Huertas et al (2021), 35 where the effectiveness of passive cooling strategies decreases, especially for regions with high outdoor temperature. Natural ventilation is a good option but will not attain 100% comfort, therefore, requiring the use of HVAC systems.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 81%

“…34 Passive design strategies are predicted to be the worst performers in hot and humid climates in the future, implying greater demand for cooling energy. 35 This work focused primarily on the use of NV to maintain indoor thermal comfort in residential buildings in the future under the different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The novelty of the study is that very few studies have been carried out on this aspect of the climate change impact on buildings through detailed case studies, especially for the residential sector in Mauritius.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Influence of the climate change on natural ventilation use in residential buildings in the tropical island of Mauritius

Kaudeer

Venkannah

2023

Indoor and Built Environment

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Thermal performance of buildings highly depends on the climate conditions, which have given rise to several traditional and modern climate-conscious strategies. However, these strategies might need to be modified to cater for global warming. This research considers the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) to predict the effectiveness of one such strategy, that is, natural ventilation for the year 2100 for the tropical island of Mauritius. A total of 3 regions (Port Louis, Vacoas and St Pierre), each with distinctive micro-climates, were selected to assess the thermal discomfort levels under future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5). The results show that, in 2100, discomfort levels during occupancy periods will increase by a maximum of 15% in Port Louis, while the other 2 regions will have an increase of 11%, under the worst scenario, while using natural ventilation. Results, thus, establish that natural ventilation will not be efficient under the impact of climate change, although varying for different climate conditions. This research indicates that there is a need to shift from natural ventilation as traditional cooling method to other energy driven method such as Heating, Ventilation and Air conditioning (HVAC system) and hybrid mixed-mode systems for future climate change adaptation.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 81%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of the climate change on natural ventilation use in residential buildings in the tropical island of Mauritius

Kaudeer

Venkannah

2023

Indoor and Built Environment

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“…These are derived from an ensemble of climate projections obtained by downscaling large-scale information from six Global Climate Models (GCM) [60] with regional model RCA4 [61] in the context of up to three RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) climate change scenarios, namely RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios establish four tendencies of the evolution of greenhouse gas emissions throughout the 21st century: a strict mitigation scenario (RCP2.6), two intermediate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP6.0) and a scenario with very high greenhouse gas emissions (RCP8.5) [62]. According to the IPCC [63], all four RCP suggest that the global mean surface temperature change for the period 2016-2035 relative to 1986-2005 will likely be in the range 0.3 • C to 0.7 • C. However, by the mid-21st century, the projected changes differ in each scenario, such that, by the end of the 21st century (2081-2100) relative to 1986-2005, the global mean surface temperature is likely to be 0.3 The data in CSTI have an horizontal resolution of 0.11 deg, i.e., around 12.5 km.…”

Section: Data and Methods Used For Investigating The Climate Suitabil...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Suitability for Tourism in Romania Based on HCI: Urban Climate Index in the Near-Future Climate

et al. 2023

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This study presents an assessment of climate suitability for outdoor leisure activities in Romania using the Holliday Climate Index (HCI) for the near future (2021–2040), focusing on unfavorable and good climate conditions. The analysis employs data from an ensemble of model simulations in the context of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios. The results indicate that the number of days with low weather suitability is decreasing in almost the entire country, especially during the warm season, while during the winter and spring, extended regions may be characterized by a higher number of days favorable for outdoor activities than during the current climate. An estimation of the impact of climate change on tourism flux in Romania is further carried out, suggesting that the increasing attractivity of climate conditions may lead to an increased number of tourist overnights in the near future, and this will be more pronounced in rural destinations.

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“…These four scenarios are projected based on trends and the possibility of tightness or looseness of climate change mitigation measures implemented in a region. RCP 2.6 is a scenario of strict climate change mitigation, RCP 4.5 and 6.0 are moderate scenarios, and RCP 8.5 is a scenario with very high greenhouse gas concentrations (Bienvenido-Huertas et al, 2021). This research was conducted to project climate variations until 2100 in potato production center areas, namely Tosari and Poncokusumo Sub-districts.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Climate Variation on Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) based on Climate Projections until 2100

Hariyono,

Rochadi,

Misnawati

2024

IJEAB

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One of the challenges faced in cultivating potatoes is global warming, which has the potential to result in an increase in atmospheric temperatures, as well as changes in various climate variabilities that can affect the planting season, growth, and crop yields. This research aims to project an increase in atmospheric temperature until 2100 in two production center areas based on climate projection models in three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios, as well as projecting potato crop productivity in these two locations based on climate projection results. This research was carried out by examining climate variations at two location points, namely Tosari District and Poncokusumo District, and was conducted in May-October 2023. The tools used in this research included Microsoft Excel 2013, CORDEX, ArcMap 10.8, and NASA POWER software. The materials used include historical data on daily rainfall, daily minimum temperature, and daily maximum temperature, as well as potato productivity data from Tosari District and Poncokusumo District. Data analysis carried out in this research consisted of: 1) validation test of the climate projection model used, 2) projection of average rainfall and temperature, 3) multiple linear regression analysis to project potato crop productivity. The research results show that in the RCP 2.6 scenario, there is no pattern of increase in average atmospheric temperature until 2100, while there is a pattern of temperature increase of 0.41-1.21°C and 1.26-2.23°C in the RCP 4.5 scenario and RCP 8.5. There is an increase in potato plant productivity in Tosari District and Poncokusumo District based on productivity projections until 2100. Meanwhile, there is a decrease in potato plant productivity in Poncokusumo District in the RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5 scenarios. Based on the RCP 8.5 scenario, there is a pattern of higher productivity increase in Poncokusumo District compared to Tosari District.

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Influence of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios on the bioclimatic design strategies of the built environment

Cited by 21 publications

References 52 publications

Influence of the climate change on natural ventilation use in residential buildings in the tropical island of Mauritius

Influence of the climate change on natural ventilation use in residential buildings in the tropical island of Mauritius

Climate Suitability for Tourism in Romania Based on HCI: Urban Climate Index in the Near-Future Climate

Impact of Climate Variation on Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) based on Climate Projections until 2100

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