Influence of the Stratospheric QBO on ENSO Variability

Gray, William M.; Sheaffer, J. D.; Knaff, John A.

doi:10.2151/jmsj1965.70.5_975

Cited by 104 publications

(88 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…Van Loon & Labitzke (1988) described how solar flux influences various atmospheric parameters, depending on the phase of the QBO, revealing its modulating influence on global climate. Gray et al (1992) described how the easterly phase of the QBO can help initiate El Niño events, depending on the state of the 'warm pool' and annual cycle. The easterly phase of the QBO appears to play a role in initiating every second El Niño event.…”

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Correlates of Canadian Prairie summer rainfall: implications for crop yields

Garnett¹,

Nirupama²,

Haque³

et al. 2006

Clim. Res.

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Large-scale atmospheric circulations and anomalies have significant influence upon seasonal weather over many parts of the world. We examined the impact of sunspot activity and large-scale atmospheric features on regional seasonal weather, as well as implications for crop yield and agronomy. The atmospheric variables analyzed included the stratospheric quasi-biennial wind oscillation (QBO), El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and North American snow cover (NAS) on Canadian summer rainfall, regarded as a key variable for establishing grain yield. Because the study is an exploratory one, we focused on correlation coefficients between selected variables. The analysis is based on 55 yr of atmospheric, crop yield and climatic data for > 50 weather stations over the Canadian Prairie region. Our study reveals that high (low) sunspot activity, an easterly (westerly) phase of the QBO, persistent La Niña (El Niño) conditions and heavier (lighter) than normal NAS in seasons leading up to the summer months are associated with low (high) summer rainfall. KEY WORDS: Summer rainfall · Snow cover · Sunspots · ENSO · QBO · Canadian Prairie · North America Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisherClim Res 32: 25-33, 2006, Shabbar et. al. 1997, Garnett et. al. 1997, 1998, Hsieh et al. 1999, Garnett 2002. This condition favors spring wheat yield. Conversely, when SSTs in the central and eastern equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean are below normal during winter and early spring (that is, a prevailing La Niña), precipitation over the Canadian Prairies during the months of June and July is below normal. Consequently, wheat yields are reduced. Garnett (2002) found that statistical relationships with ENSO were strongest in Saskatchewan's brown soil zone in the southwest part of the province and weakest in the black soil zone in the northeast part of the province. In short El Niño is a friend and La Niña a foe to spring wheat growing in the Canadian Prairies.Among many other large-scale atmospheric features, the sunspot cycle, as a determinant of regional seasonal weather conditions, has received attention from a number of researchers. The Max Planck Society (press release, October 28, 2004; available at http:// www.mpg.de/english/portal/index.html) puts forth the mechanism by which sunspot activity may affect precipitation. Sunspot activity and cosmic ray intensity are inversely correlated, and therefore during periods of high (low) sunspot activity cosmic ray intensity diminishes (increases). Ions produced by cosmic rays act as condensation nuclei for a larger suspension of particles and thus contribute to cloud formation. With increased solar activity (and stronger magnetic field) the cosmic rays decrease and with it the amount of cloud coverage, resulting in a rise of temperatures on the earth. Conversely, a reduction in solar activity produces lower temperatures. Thompson (1973) pointed to the effects of the double sunspot cycle on the USA Corn Belt and middle latitudes. Currie (198...

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Correlates of Canadian Prairie summer rainfall: implications for crop yields

Garnett¹,

Nirupama²,

Haque³

et al. 2006

Clim. Res.

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“…fall in various regions [Gray, 1984;Kane, 1995 [Gray et al, 1992b;Knaff, 1992;Angell, 1992]. Some of these are faint at best and are not generally accepted [Kane, 1992;Xu, 1992].…”

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The stratospheric quasi‐biennial oscillation in the NCEP reanalyses: Climatological structures

Huesmann¹,

Hitchman²

2001

J. Geophys. Res.

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“…Several mechanisms have been suggested as to how a link might proceed. Gray et al (1992b) found that wind shear near the tropopause associated with the QBO phase in the lowermost stratosphere affects deep convection in the warm pool area. Giorgetta et al (1999) and Huang et al (2012) argued that the change in static stability due to the temperature QBO might play a more important role.…”

Section: The Qbo Effect On Snow Covermentioning

confidence: 99%

Multidecadal variations of the effects of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on the climate system

et al. 2016

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Abstract. Effects of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) on tropospheric climate are not always strong or they appear only intermittently. Studying them requires long time series of both the QBO and climate variables, which has restricted previous studies to the past 30-50 years. Here we use the benefits of an existing QBO reconstruction back to 1908. We first investigate additional, newly digitized historical observations of stratospheric winds to test the reconstruction. Then we use the QBO time series to analyse atmospheric data sets (reconstructions and reanalyses) as well as the results of coupled ocean-atmosphere-chemistry climate model simulations that were forced with the reconstructed QBO. We investigate effects related to (1) tropical-extratropical interaction in the stratosphere, wave-mean flow interaction and subsequent downward propagation, and (2) interaction between deep tropical convection and stratospheric flow. We generally find weak connections, though some are statistically significant over the 100-year period and consistent with model results. Apparent multidecadal variations in the connection between the QBO and the investigated climate responses are consistent with a small effect in the presence of large variability, with one exception: the imprint on the northern polar vortex, which is seen in recent reanalysis data, is not found in the period . Conversely, an imprint in Berlin surface air temperature is only found in but not in the recent period. Likewise, in the model simulations both links tend to appear alternatingly, suggesting a more systematic modulation due to a shift in the circulation, for example. Over the Pacific warm pool, we find increased convection during easterly QBO, mainly in boreal winter in observation-based data as well as in the model simulations, with large variability. No QBO effects were found in the Indian monsoon strength or Atlantic hurricane frequency.

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Influence of the Stratospheric QBO on ENSO Variability

Cited by 104 publications

References 46 publications

Correlates of Canadian Prairie summer rainfall: implications for crop yields

Correlates of Canadian Prairie summer rainfall: implications for crop yields

The stratospheric quasi‐biennial oscillation in the NCEP reanalyses: Climatological structures

Multidecadal variations of the effects of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on the climate system

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