Influence of urbanisation on socioeconomic factors for harnessing the Demographic Dividend in Uganda: An exploratory analysis of the 2016 UDHS

Abstract

Background: The Uganda Vision 2040 underpins socioeconomic factors such as the country’s rapid population growth, a young population structure and a small proportion of the working population as major threats to Uganda’s aspiration of achieving socio-economic development. In order to position the country on a path for socioeconomic development, the National Population Policy emphasises the need for the population to adopt an urban character. This paper seeks to establish the influence of urbanisation on the socio-economic factors for harnessing the demographic dividend in Uganda exploring the urban/rural differentials, through an exploratory analysis of data from the 2016 Uganda Demographic and Health Survey. Methods: Bivariate analysis and multivariate logistic regressions were used to determine the influence of urbanization on the explanatory variables which contribute to change in fertility. The significant variables (p<0.05) at the bivariate level were included in the two fit logistic regression models. The first model (model 1) shows the association between total children ever born and the explanatory factors in rural areas. The second model (model 2) adjusts for the enabling factors to the first model for women in urban areas. Results: Women living in urban areas, with above secondary level education (OR 3.1: CI 2.5-3.8), whose age at first sex was within the legally accepted age range of 18-49 (OR 3.0: CI 2.4-3.5), and coming from wealthier households (OR 1.63: CI 1.2-2.2) have increased odds of producing less than 3 children modelled as most ideal for the attainment of the DD. Conclusion: The influence of urbanisation towards harnessing the DD is especially through women’s education levels, increased household welfare and age at first sex.