Influence of urbanization on hourly extreme precipitation over China

Huang, Xiaowen; Wang, Dashan; Ziegler, Alan D.; Liu, Xiaoping; Zeng, Hui; Xu, Zhibo; Zeng, Zhenzhong

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac59a6

Cited by 25 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…For instance, the atmospheric circulation anomaly is one of the major factors due to its close connection to the interdecadal anomalies in water vapour transport (An et al, 2015; Sun & Ding, 2010; Wu et al, 2019). In addition, urbanization positively affects precipitation extremes by enhancing thermodynamic perturbations and moisture transport (Huang et al, 2022; Rozoff et al, 2003). Aerosols also influence precipitation extremes by interfering with the radiation balance and changing the microphysical properties of clouds (McCoy et al, 2022; Park & Allen, 2015).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long‐term evolution and non‐stationary behaviours of daily and subdaily precipitation extremes in China

Liu,

Chen,

Xiong

et al. 2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The rise of extreme precipitation events has attracted wide attention throughout the world. However, the analysis of precipitation extremes is not sufficient in the short period of instrumental observation and it is complicated by their non‐stationary behaviours. As a period dominated by natural forcing, the last millennium is helpful for understanding long‐term changes in precipitation extremes. Therefore, this study aimed to (1) investigate changes in daily and subdaily precipitation extremes in China from the last millennium to the end of the twenty‐first century, (2) detect the non‐stationarity of precipitation extremes and (3) compare design storms by using stationary and non‐stationary distributions. The annual maximum 1‐day precipitation (RX1day) and annual maximum 3‐hour precipitation (RX3hour) are used to quantify variations of precipitation extremes. The results show that the trend of RX1day was insignificant for the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, 950–1250) and the Little Ice Age (LIA, 1500–1800). For the historical period (1850–2014), the trend of RX1day and RX3hour was insignificant in most subregions. In addition, the differences for RX1day between the historical period and the MCA/LIA were mostly in the range of −5% to 5%. For the future period (2015–2100), RX1day and RX3hour are projected to increase in almost all land grids compared with the historical period, and they show greater increases in western China than eastern China. The non‐stationarity of RX1day and RX3hour is mainly found under the high‐emission scenario. Moreover, stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution underestimates 50‐year return levels for RX1day and RX3hour in most areas compared with non‐stationary GEV distribution under the high‐emission scenario. Overall, this study suggests that daily and subdaily extreme precipitation will intensify over China in the future. For design storms, non‐stationary methods need to be used for risk management and engineering design under the high‐emission scenario.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long‐term evolution and non‐stationary behaviours of daily and subdaily precipitation extremes in China

Liu,

Chen,

Xiong

et al. 2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Short-term extremely heavy precipitation is one of the most significant causes of meteorological disasters [1,2], and its accurate prediction is of great practical significance for facilitating smoother travel, guiding agricultural production, and preventing and mitigating disasters. At present, short-term extremely heavy precipitation forecasts mainly rely on numerical weather models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Radar Data Assimilation on the Forecast of “12.8” Extreme Rainstorm in Central China (2021)

He,

Ye,

et al. 2023

Atmosphere

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Dual-polarization radar data are useful for numerical models to improve precipitation forecasts. For an extremely heavy precipitation event that occurred in Central China on 11 August 2021, the hydrometeor concentration and water vapor content used in the initial field of the Weather Research and Forecasting (version 4.1) model are retrieved by the statistical relationship of relative humidity with dual-polarization radar reflectivity in Suizhou City of Central China. Three experiments are conducted, and the simulation results are compared after assimilating the radar data. The results indicate that the multiple factors contributing to this extreme heavy precipitation event included the divergence of upper-level airflows, the middle- and low-level low vortex/shear, the easterly jet stream in front of the low vortex, and the continuous intrusion of cold air on the ground. In addition, with the retrieval of the hydrometeor concentration and water vapor content, the composite reflectivity forecast results are more similar to the observations. Also, the location and intensity of the short-term extremely heavy precipitation event are less different from the observations. In addition, by cyclically adjusting the hydrometeor concentration and water vapor content in the initial field, we can obtain better forecasts of the reflectivity and short-term extremely heavy precipitation, and this improvement can be maintained for approximately 3 h.

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“…Besides, urbanization is another aspect inducing short-duration intense rainfall (e.g. Li et al, 2020;Huang et al, 2022). Yin et al (2022a) proposed that dynamic structures such as arc-shaped updraught belts were directly involved in a record-breaking EHR event.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Besides, urbanization is another aspect inducing short‐duration intense rainfall (e.g. Li et al ., 2020; Huang et al ., 2022). Yin et al .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Synergetic roles of dynamic and cloud microphysical processes in extreme short‐term rainfall: A case‐study

Yin

et al. 2022

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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Both dynamic and cloud microphysical processes play significant roles in the intensity of severe rainfall within a convective storm. In this study, a quantitative analysis has been performed to investigate dynamic and cloud microphysical contributions to extreme hourly rainfall (EHR) with the peak value of 201.9 mm in Zhengzhou City, China, on 20 July 2021. It is found that the EHR is generated by the overlay of rainwater provided by both dynamic delivery and cloud microphysical production within a meso‐γ‐scale convective storm over Zhengzhou. Specifically, part of the rainwater is directly produced by cloud microphysical processes over the EHR region. More importantly, considerable rainwater, which is produced in the front of the storm associated with strong updraughts, is delivered into the EHR region. The dynamically delivered rainwater overlays the rainwater produced by cloud microphysical processes, forming a deep layer with a large amount of rainwater over the EHR region. As the massive rainwater pours down within a short time, EHR is formed. It should be highlighted that the dynamic delivery plays a decisive role in EHR formation, although sometimes EHR can be generated mainly through cloud microphysical production in the case of weak dynamic delivery. Concerning the cloud microphysical processes, the collision of cloud droplets by raindrops produces the largest amount of rainwater, followed by graupel melting. Linking the EHR with dynamic and cloud microphysical processes within a convective storm, a new light on further understanding and forecasting of short‐duration extreme rainfall would be shed.

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Influence of urbanization on hourly extreme precipitation over China

Cited by 25 publications

References 47 publications

Long‐term evolution and non‐stationary behaviours of daily and subdaily precipitation extremes in China

Long‐term evolution and non‐stationary behaviours of daily and subdaily precipitation extremes in China

Impacts of Radar Data Assimilation on the Forecast of “12.8” Extreme Rainstorm in Central China (2021)

Synergetic roles of dynamic and cloud microphysical processes in extreme short‐term rainfall: A case‐study

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