Informal pathways as a response to limitations in formal categorization of referrals in child and family welfare

Villumsen, Anne Marie Anker; Søbjerg, Lene Mosegaard

doi:10.1080/2156857x.2020.1795705

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…A problematization of professional discretion in a context of high uncertainty was central in justifying the algorithmic model. This problematization builds on a previous qualitative study of caseworkers' risk assessments, concluding that caseworkers' risk assessments are fraught with complex dilemmas, deep uncertainties, and a lack of standardization (Villumsen and Søbjerg, 2023). For instance, a report documented significant variations in caseworkers' practices when it comes to determining how much information to incorporate into their risk assessments: should a social worker only assess the notification or gather more information (Gjedde et al, 2017: 7)?…”

Section: Case Materials and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Algorithmic constructions of risk: Anticipating uncertain futures in child protection services

Ratner

Elmholdt

2023

Big Data & Society

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This paper examines how predictive algorithms construct risk by calculating and anticipating children's uncertain futures. Theoretically, we analyze algorithmic risk construction by attending to (a) the problematizations justifying algorithmic prediction, (b) their underpinning data infrastructures, and (c) the configurations of agencies across humans and machines. Empirically, we examine two experiments in Danish child protection services that developed algorithmic models to predict children's maltreatment. Our analysis highlights how algorithmic predictions can create different notions of risk. The first case used predictive algorithms to supplement human risk assessments with data from child protection services, while the second case aimed to detect risk early by constructing parents as risk factors, requiring data from other welfare sectors. By comparing these cases, we highlight two distinct risk constructions: one that uses algorithmic prediction to manage uncertainty and another that seeks to eliminate undesired futures by preempting risk. These different constructions have implications for how the present is viewed as a moment of intervention and for how families are constructed as “risk objects.”

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Section: Case Materials and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Algorithmic constructions of risk: Anticipating uncertain futures in child protection services

Ratner

Elmholdt

2023

Big Data & Society

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“…This task becomes even more demanding in the many countries that mandate CPS to promptly classify referrals based on their risk level upon receipt and to conduct thorough investigations into the most serious cases. Recent qualitative evidence from Denmark reveals significant differences in how Danish municipalities categorize and respond to referrals [ 5 ]. This inconsistency can lead to challenges in prioritizing and addressing cases appropriately.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predictive risk modeling for child maltreatment detection and enhanced decision-making: Evidence from Danish administrative data

Rosholm,

Bodilsen,

Michel

et al. 2024

PLoS ONE

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Child maltreatment is a widespread problem with significant costs for both victims and society. In this retrospective cohort study, we develop predictive risk models using Danish administrative data to predict removal decisions among referred children and assess the effectiveness of caseworkers in identifying children at risk of maltreatment. The study analyzes 195,639 referrals involving 102,309 children Danish Child Protection Services received from April 2016 to December 2017. We implement four machine learning models of increasing complexity, incorporating extensive background information on each child and their family. Our best-performing model exhibits robust predictive power, with an AUC-ROC score exceeding 87%, indicating its ability to consistently rank referred children based on their likelihood of being removed. Additionally, we find strong positive correlations between the model’s predictions and various adverse child outcomes, such as crime, physical and mental health issues, and school absenteeism. Furthermore, we demonstrate that predictive risk models can enhance caseworkers’ decision-making processes by reducing classification errors and identifying at-risk children at an earlier stage, enabling timely interventions and potentially improving outcomes for vulnerable children.

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“…Different countries have different legislations as well as socioeconomic and political contexts that affect decision‐making regarding referrals (Villumsen & Søbjerg, 2020; Taylor & Whittaker, 2018). Two major social service systems exist in the Western world: child and family welfare1 and child protection (Tefre, 2017).…”

Section: Introduction and Research Aimmentioning

confidence: 99%

The context‐bound phenomenon of decision‐making on referrals: A scoping review

Villumsen

Gjedde

2022

Children & Society

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In this scoping review, we aim to study the decisionmaking process regarding referrals concerning children and families at risk within child protection and child welfare systems. Particularly, we focus on the decision made immediately after receiving the referral. We conducted two rounds of searches across 17 different databases. We used 17 and 19 different terms translated into four languages respectively. Twenty-seven articles were included within a period of 14 years. After describing the field following the type of social service system and geography, the decision-making ecology (DME) framework was applied. The issue of decision-making in social service is complex. Overall, the results showed that the field is somewhat well studied, methodologically and thematically, showing an overweight of studies conducted in the UK and the USA, indicating a need for more research in Nordic child and family welfare systems. We argue that decision-making regarding referrals is a context-bound phenomenon with mainly external factors, such as types of social service systems,

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Informal pathways as a response to limitations in formal categorization of referrals in child and family welfare

Cited by 5 publications

References 21 publications

Algorithmic constructions of risk: Anticipating uncertain futures in child protection services

Algorithmic constructions of risk: Anticipating uncertain futures in child protection services

Predictive risk modeling for child maltreatment detection and enhanced decision-making: Evidence from Danish administrative data

The context‐bound phenomenon of decision‐making on referrals: A scoping review

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