Information transparency in prediction markets

Yang, Shuiyuan; Li, Ting; Heck, Eric van

doi:10.1016/j.dss.2015.05.009

Cited by 7 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 62 publications

(137 reference statements)

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“…On the other hand, information traders who trade on specific information in a prediction market are themselves subject to information asymmetries (O'Leary, 2015). By affecting the information aggregation efficiency, the transparency of contributed information impedes such trading behaviors, rather than enticing them (Yang et al, 2015). Therefore, our findings strengthen the insight that less transparent information opens the door for deceptive acts.…”

Section: Research Contributionssupporting

confidence: 67%

Manipulative Imputation in Distributed Decision Support Settings: The Implications of Information Asymmetry and Aggregation Complexity

Malekovic¹,

Sutanto

Goutas

2016

Decision Support Systems

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According to earlier research, distributed decision support structures are susceptible to deception. We complement the existing works by analyzing group members' attempts to manipulate group decisions supported by distributed communications. Experimentally, we manipulated two systemic features of a distributed support structure: the members' information asymmetry and decision rule complexity. Both of these features refer to structural properties of aggregated information exchange. We confirmed several hypothesized effects: An increase in the information asymmetry in the aggregation of information increases the incidence of the members' manipulative tendency. It also increases the effectiveness of the members' manipulative imputations. However, the complexity of a decision rule negatively moderates both of these effects. We point out the theoretical relevance and managerial implications of our findings. We conclude that managing team members' information asymmetry and complexity of issues under their practical consideration may result in valuable disclosures.

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Section: Research Contributionssupporting

confidence: 67%

Manipulative Imputation in Distributed Decision Support Settings: The Implications of Information Asymmetry and Aggregation Complexity

Malekovic¹,

Sutanto

Goutas

2016

Decision Support Systems

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“…In contrast, various studies demonstrate that more information transparency is not always better (e.g. Koppius, 2002, Von der Fehr, 2013, Yang et al 2015) since there can be a form of information saturation, after which more information to bidders does not further increase the auction performance. Also, it could enhance behavioural biases or confuse agents by adding complexity to relevant information.…”

Section: Factors Affecting Forecasting Behaviourmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…(e.g. Li et al 2015). In this paper, we are interested in the market informedness level of bidders about a product whose demand is inelastic and for which the price depends much more on the environmental factors.…”

Section: Measurement Of Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We contribute to the growing literature on (1) information transparency and revelation policies in online (Bloomfield, 1999;Zu 2002Zu , 2004Arora et al 2007;Soh et al 2006;Adomavicious et al 2012;Strecker, 2010) and specifically, in day ahead auctions (Ray and Cashman, 1999;van der Fehr, 2015); (2) the effect of amount of information feedback (Granados et al 2005(Granados et al , 2008(Granados et al , 2010Watson et al, 2010, Yang et al, 2015 and bidders' heterogeneity/behaviour (Bapna et al, 2004;Adomovicious et al, 2012, Lu et al, 2016 on their trading decisions/strategies; and (3) informational role of forward/prediction markets (Grossman 1977(Grossman , 1978Forsythe et al, 1984, Antoniou andHolmes, 1995;Redl at al. 2009;Chen and Plott, 2002;Wolfers and Zitzewitz, 2006;Van Bruggen et al 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Agent-level determinants of price expectation formation in online double-sided auctions

Avci

Bunn

Ketter

et al. 2019

Decision Support Systems

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For an auctioneer, it is of utmost importance to design an auction mechanism that gives robust price signals which in turn increases auction performance. Information architecture and forward trading platforms are the two main information sources that could generate these price signals. However the traditional presumption that agents form rational expectations by accurately processing all available information in the online trading environment and forming their expectations accordingly has found mixed support. We develop a research model that empirically tests the impact of agents' attitudes on their price expectation through their trading behaviour. Using a unique data set, we tested our hypotheses on real ex ante forecasts, evaluated ex post, in an electricity day ahead auction context. This paper is one of the first to take an information-based view to study the trading behaviour of agents and their price expectations, with results that suggest a reconsideration of some of the conventional concepts.

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“…Traditional prediction markets have limitations on centralization and lack transparency, hindering access and comprehensive analysis of granular user behaviors [61] and raising concerns about potential manipulation [1]. Additionally, the aggregation and analysis of behavior data in traditional prediction markets, where identity verification is compulsory, can be constrained by privacy concerns and regulatory restrictions [43].…”

Section: Polymarket Web3 Prediction Marketmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improvement of Outpatient Service Processes: A Case Study of the University of Hong Kong-Shenzhen Hospital

Chen

Alturas

2023

Preprint

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This work presents a case study on The University of Hong Kong-Shenzhen Hospital (HKU-SZH), which was the first to implement an outpatient appointment registration system. This study provides an anatomy of the hospital outpatient process through various methods and theories, such as literature review, field research, expert consultation, business process improvement theory and Information technology, with the objective of identifying objectives and strategies of the hospital case in improving its outpatient process. By means of outpatient process improvement, this study aim to increase the case hospital’s efficiency and raise its patients’ satisfaction so that the hospital may enhance its comprehensive competence. In addition, an effective and operable methodology will be generated, which is expected to serve as a reference for other hospitals to improve their operation and their management. Therefore, the research question is to know which factors most influence patient satisfaction. It was found that service attitude, service value, and waiting time have a significant influence on patient satisfaction.

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Information transparency in prediction markets

Cited by 7 publications

References 62 publications

Manipulative Imputation in Distributed Decision Support Settings: The Implications of Information Asymmetry and Aggregation Complexity

Manipulative Imputation in Distributed Decision Support Settings: The Implications of Information Asymmetry and Aggregation Complexity

Agent-level determinants of price expectation formation in online double-sided auctions

Improvement of Outpatient Service Processes: A Case Study of the University of Hong Kong-Shenzhen Hospital

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