Informing network management using fuzzy cognitive maps

Baker, Christopher M.; Holden, Matthew; Plein, Michaela; McCarthy, Michael A.; Possingham, Hugh P.

doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2018.05.031

Cited by 31 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…Network theory (whereby key system components and their interactions are represented by a set of "nodes" connected by "links" of varying strength) has also been particularly useful for understanding ecology from local to regional scales-allowing for characterization of trophic and habitat interactions and key player identification (Jordán et al, 2006;Bascompte, 2009;Thébault and Fontaine, 2010), as well as to predict management outcomes for interacting threats (Marzloff et al, 2016b;Baker et al, 2018;Tulloch et al, 2018), or distributed patches, such as networks of aquaculture leases (Mardones et al, 2011). Network theory has also supplied science with a powerful means of integrating information sources (e.g., by allowing for explicit connection of observations from different disciplines and with traditional knowledge) to provide new insights into system functioning (e.g., Dambacher et al, 2003).…”

Section: Network Theory-finding Patterns and Connectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Where the Ecological Gaps Remain, a Modelers' Perspective

et al. 2019

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Section: Network Theory-finding Patterns and Connectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Where the Ecological Gaps Remain, a Modelers' Perspective

et al. 2019

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“…Ecosystems of interacting species can be represented as networks (Ings et al 2008), and many qualitative (Levins 1974;Dambacher et al 2002;Dambacher et al 2009;Mutshinda et al 2009;Raymond et al 2011;Iles & Novak 2016;Baker et al 2018) and quantitative (Ives et al 2003;Gross & Feudel 2006;Novak et al 2011;Iles & Novak 2016;Ovaskainen et al 2017;Baker et al 2017;Certain et al 2018) modelling strategies have been used to investigate them. Both qualitative and quantitative approaches can investigate hypotheses about how disturbances change future species densities (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Informing management decisions for ecological networks, using dynamic models calibrated to noisy time‐series data

et al. 2020

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Well‐intentioned environmental management can backfire, causing unforeseen damage. To avoid this, managers and ecologists seek accurate predictions of the ecosystem‐wide impacts of interventions, given small and imprecise datasets, which is an incredibly difficult task. We generated and analysed thousands of ecosystem population time series to investigate whether fitted models can aid decision‐makers to select interventions. Using these time‐series data (sparse and noisy datasets drawn from deterministic Lotka‐Volterra systems with two to nine species, of known network structure), dynamic model forecasts of whether a species’ future population will be positively or negatively affected by rapid eradication of another species were correct > 70% of the time. Although 70% correct classifications is only slightly better than an uninformative prediction (50%), this classification accuracy can be feasibly improved by increasing monitoring accuracy and frequency. Our findings suggest that models may not need to produce well‐constrained predictions before they can inform decisions that improve environmental outcomes.

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“…, Baker et al. ). Our approach is particularly closely related to the computational qualitative modeling approaches of Raymond et al.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Our method fits into a suite of approaches that analyze the effect of perturbations on an ecosystem. These include qualitative modeling, which has been used widely to model the introduction or removal of species (Dambacher 2003, Raymond et al 2011, and fuzzy cognitive maps (Ramsey and Norbury 2009, Baker et al 2018). Our approach is particularly closely related to the computational qualitative modeling approaches of Raymond et al (2011); a method focusing on equilibrium changes.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A novel approach to assessing the ecosystem‐wide impacts of reintroductions

Baker

Bode

Dexter

et al. 2018

Ecological Applications

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Reintroducing a species to an ecosystem can have significant impacts on the recipient ecological community. Although reintroductions can have striking and positive outcomes, they also carry risks; many well‐intentioned conservation actions have had surprising and unsatisfactory outcomes. A range of network‐based mathematical methods has been developed to make quantitative predictions of how communities will respond to management interventions. These methods are based on the limited knowledge of which species interact with each other and in what way. However, expert knowledge isn't perfect and can only take models so far. Fortunately, other types of data, such as abundance time series, is often available, but, to date, no quantitative method exists to integrate these various data types into these models, allowing more precise ecosystem‐wide predictions. In this paper, we develop mathematical methods that combine time‐series data of multiple species with knowledge of species interactions and we apply it to proposed reintroductions at Booderee National Park in Australia. There have been large fluctuations in species abundances at Booderee National Park in recent history, following intense feral fox (Vulpes vulpes) control, including the local extinction of the greater glider (Petauroides volans). These fluctuations can provide information about the system isn't readily obtained from a stable system, and we use them to inform models that we then use to predict potential outcomes of eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus) and long‐nosed potoroo (Potorous tridactylus) reintroductions. One of the key species of conservation concern in the park is the Eastern Bristlebird (Dasyornis brachypterus), and we find that long‐nosed potoroo introduction would have very little impact on the Eastern Bristlebird population, while the eastern quoll introduction increased the likelihood of Eastern Bristlebird decline, although that depends on the strength and form of any possible interaction.

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Informing network management using fuzzy cognitive maps

Cited by 31 publications

References 55 publications

Where the Ecological Gaps Remain, a Modelers' Perspective

Where the Ecological Gaps Remain, a Modelers' Perspective

Informing management decisions for ecological networks, using dynamic models calibrated to noisy time‐series data

A novel approach to assessing the ecosystem‐wide impacts of reintroductions

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