Innovative approaches to the trend assessment of streamflows in the Eastern Black Sea basin, Turkey

Akçay, Fatma; Kankal, Murat; Şan, Murat

doi:10.1080/02626667.2021.1998509

Cited by 40 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 68 publications

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“…The IPTA method has been validated by Akçay et al . (2022) for monthly precipitation data in the Susurluk Basin in Turkey and by Şan et al . (2021) for Vietnam.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 94%

Innovative polygon trend analysis of monthly precipitation (1952–2015) in the Hindukush‐Karakoram‐Himalaya river basins of Pakistan

Ahmed

Lü

Booij

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayas (HKH) mountainous range supplies water to 10 river basins serving eight countries. The present study focuses on the river basins located within the HKH region in Pakistan. The modified Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT+) was used to split the research region into 13 subbasins. The Mann-Kendall, Sen's slope, innovative polygon trend analysis (IPTA), and innovative trend analysis (ITA) methods were used for the monthly precipitation time series. The Shyok sub-basin (central Karakoram) experienced rising trends for all seasons, while the southwestern Karakoram (Hunza) showed a rising trend only for the winter. The Hindukush Mountain Range feeds five subbasins (Gilgit, Chitral, Swat, Kabul, and Kurram). The Gilgit and Kurram subbasins observed an upward trend for all seasons. A falling trend in spring and transition from spring (falling) to summer (rising) was observed for the Swat and Kabul sub-basins. The Chitral sub-basin received rising precipitation in spring, summer, and autumn, whereas no trend was observed during winter. In the southern Himalayas (Kanshi and Jhelum), no trend was observed in winter and autumn and a falling trend in spring and summer. The Kunhar sub-basin (southern Himalaya) showed rising trends in winter, spring, and autumn. In contrast, the Soan sub-basin (eastern Himalaya) has no trend in spring, and other seasons show rising trends. The sub-basin Upper Indus experienced a rising trend for autumn, winter, and summer, while a downward trend was observed in spring. The IPTA and ITA approaches are much more sensitive than the Mann-Kendall method in detecting trends. Although the innovative methods are mostly compatible with each other (90%), the IPTA presents additional information about trend transitions between successive parts of the time series. The results presented in this study are an advancement in the investigations made so far in this region and will help to understand the climate and hydrology of this region.

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“…The IPTA method has been validated by Akçay et al . (2022) for monthly precipitation data in the Susurluk Basin in Turkey and by Şan et al . (2021) for Vietnam.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 94%

Innovative polygon trend analysis of monthly precipitation (1952–2015) in the Hindukush‐Karakoram‐Himalaya river basins of Pakistan

Ahmed

Lü

Booij

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…On top of it, the IPTA detected trends in more locations and months; this shows that this new approach to trend analysis is more sensitive. The past studies showed that the IPTA can successfully detect the trends detected by the Mann-Kendall test and give more sensitive results (San et al, 2021;Akcay et al, 2022). Innovative graphical ways can provide both visual numerical and verbal comments in addition to trendsetting success.…”

Section: No Trend Increasingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The parametric approaches are dependent on the assumption that data fit the normal distribution. They are often preferable in trend analysis research since nonparametric methods do not make this assumption (Onyutha, 2016;Akcay et al, 2022). Mann-Kendall, Spearman's rho, and Sen's trend slope tests are some examples of nonparametric methods.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trend detection by innovative polygon trend analysis for winds and waves

et al. 2022

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It is known that densely populated coastal areas may be adversely affected as a result of the climate change effects. In this respect, for coastal protection, utilization, and management it is critical to understand the changes in wind speed (WS) and significant wave height (SWH) in coastal areas. Innovative approaches, which are one of the trend analysis methods used as an effective way to examine these changes, have started to be used very frequently in many fields in recent years, although not in coastal and marine engineering. The Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) method provides to observe the one-year behavior of the time series by representing the changes between consecutive months as well as determining the trends in each individual month. It is not also affected by constraints such as data length, distribution type or serial correlation. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to investigate whether using innovative trend methods compared to the traditional methods makes a difference in trends of the climatological variables. For this goal, trends of mean and maximum WS and SWH series for each month at 33 coastal locations in Black Sea coasts were evaluated. Wind and wave parameters WS and SWH were obtained from 42-year long-term wave simulations using Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) model forced by the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). Monthly mean and maximum WS and SWH were calculated at all locations and then trend analyses using both traditional and innovative methods were performed. Low occurrence of trends were detected for mean SWH, maximum SWH, mean WS, and maximum WS according to the Mann-Kendall test in the studied months. The IPTA method detected more trends, such as the decreasing trend of the mean SWH at most locations in May, July and November December. The lowest (highest) values were seen in summer (winter), according to a one-year cycle on the IPTA template for all variables. According to both methods, most of the months showed a decreasing trend for the mean WS at some locations in the inner continental shelf of the southwestern and southeastern Black Sea. The IPTA method can capture most of the trends detected by the Mann-Kendall method, and more missed by the latter method.

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“…Diğer taraftan IPTA yöntemi de ITST yöntemine benzer bir şekilde Rize istasyonunda altı, Artvin istasyonunda ise 10 zaman serisinde anlamlı trend olduğunu göstermiştir. Trend belirlemede MK yöntemi ile ITST ile ilgili yapılmış çalışmalar değerlendirildiğinde, ITST yöntemi MK yöntemine göre daha fazla anlamlı trend belirlediği farklı çalışmalarda görülmüştür[21,38,39]. IPTA yöntemi daha yeni önerilen bir yöntemdir ancak bu yöntem ile yapılan çalışmalar incelendiğinde sonuçların sunulan çalışmaya benzer olduğu görülmektedir[24-26, 39, 40].…”

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Artvin ve Rize İstasyonlarına ait Aylık Toplam Yağış Verilerinin Trendinin Farklı Yöntemlerle Değerlendirilmesi

Gümüş

Şimşek

AÇAR

2022

Harran Üniversitesi Mühendislik Dergisi

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Artan sera gazı emisyonuna paralel olarak küresel sıcaklık ortalaması da günden güne artmaktadır. Sıcaklıkta meydana gelen değişim başta yağış olmak üzere diğer iklim parametrelerinde değişikliklere neden olmaktadır. Su kaynakları ve tarımsal faaliyetlerin sürdürülebilir olmasında yağışta meydana gelen değişimin belirlenmesi oldukça önemlidir. Bu çalışmada, Doğu Karadeniz Bölgesinde bulunan Rize ve Artvin istasyonlarında 1970-2021 yılları arasında elde edilen aylık ortalama yağış değerlerinde meydana gelen değişimin trendi değerlendirilmiştir. Parametrik olmayan Mann-Kendall (MK) ve Spearman Rho (SR) yöntemlerinin yanı sıra, Innovative Trend Significance Test (ITST) ve Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) yöntemleri ile trend analizi yapılmış ve Sen's eğim yöntemi kullanılarak trend eğimi belirlenmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda, Rize ve Artvin istasyonlarında SR ve MK yöntemleriyle elde edilen sonuçların benzer olduğu iki istasyonda da birbirleriyle aynı sonuçları verdiği görülmüştür. Ayrıca, bu yöntemlerle yapılan analizler sonucunda ise Rize istasyonunda herhangi bir ayda istatiksel olarak anlamlı artan veya azalan trend belirlenemez iken, Artvin istasyonunda ise sadece iki ayda istatiksel olarak anlamlı artan ve azalan trend belirlenmiştir. ITST ve IPTA yöntemleri ise daha fazla ayda anlamlı trend belirlemişler ve trendlerin çoğunun artan yönde olduğu görülmüştür. Sonuç olarak, IPTA ve ITST yöntemlerinin, MK ve SR yöntemlerine kıyasla trend belirlemede daha hassas olduğu vurgulanmıştır.

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Innovative approaches to the trend assessment of streamflows in the Eastern Black Sea basin, Turkey

Cited by 40 publications

References 68 publications

Innovative polygon trend analysis of monthly precipitation (1952–2015) in the Hindukush‐Karakoram‐Himalaya river basins of Pakistan

Innovative polygon trend analysis of monthly precipitation (1952–2015) in the Hindukush‐Karakoram‐Himalaya river basins of Pakistan

Trend detection by innovative polygon trend analysis for winds and waves

Artvin ve Rize İstasyonlarına ait Aylık Toplam Yağış Verilerinin Trendinin Farklı Yöntemlerle Değerlendirilmesi

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