Innovative regression-based methodology to assess the techno-economic performance of photovoltaic installations in urban areas

Fuster-Palop, Enrique; Prades-Gil, Carlos; Masip, Ximo; Viana-Fons, Joan D.; Payá, J.

doi:10.1016/j.rser.2021.111357

Cited by 19 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…For the centroid of each of the remaining surfaces, the global irradiance is applied for all combinations of azimuth and tilt using the Liu and Jordan isotropic irradiance model [39], which is widely employed in urban areas due to its accuracy and simplicity [40,41]. The shadows cast by nearby obstacles and buildings are considered to calculate the skyline of surrounding obstacles, as detailed in a previous work [28,42,43]. The irradiance hourly time-series components and ambient temperatures are obtained from PVGIS for the year 2021 [31].…”

Section: Techno-economic Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some cases require complex machine-learning models [26,27]. In addition to an economic payback (PB) regression model proposed by the authors [28], a study case was found in which the payback and NPV model are estimated, based on installation design parameters such as power, tilt and azimuth angles, inclinations, electricity prices, among others [29]. However, both models are not very flexible to other scenarios of electricity consumption and costs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These novel regressions constitute an improvement in the PB regression defined by the authors in a previous work [28], since the latter only covered facilities that occupied all the rooftop area without considering their sizing according to the load profiles.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Techno-Economic Potential of Urban Photovoltaics: Comparison of Net Billing and Net Metering in a Mediterranean Municipality

Fuster-Palop¹,

Prades-Gil²,

Masip³

et al. 2023

Energies

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Solar photovoltaic self-consumption is an attractive approach to increase autarky and reduce emissions in the building sector. However, a successful deployment in urban rooftops requires both accurate and low-computational-cost methods to estimate the self-consumption potential and economic feasibility, which is especially scarce in the literature on net billing schemes. In the first part of this study, a bottom-up GIS-based techno-economic model has helped compare the self-consumption potential with net metering and net billing in a Mediterranean municipality of Spain, with 3734 buildings in total. The capacity was optimized according to load profiles obtained from aggregated real measurements. Multiple load profile scenarios were assessed, revealing that the potential self-sufficiency of the municipality ranges between 21.9% and 42.5%. In the second part of the study, simplified regression-based models were developed to estimate the self-sufficiency, self-consumption, economic payback and internal rate of return at a building scale, providing nRMSE values of 3.9%, 3.1%, 10.0% and 1.5%, respectively. One of the predictors with a high correlation in the regressions is a novel coefficient that measures the alignment between the load and the hours with higher irradiance. The developed correlations can be employed for any other economic or demand scenario.

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Section: Techno-economic Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Techno-Economic Potential of Urban Photovoltaics: Comparison of Net Billing and Net Metering in a Mediterranean Municipality

Fuster-Palop¹,

Prades-Gil²,

Masip³

et al. 2023

Energies

Self Cite

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“…The financial study determined that all the sites studied in [15,16] had a good profit margin based on IRR, NPV (net present value), and LCOE (levelized cost of electricity). Fuster-Palop et al in [17] showed that the shadow losses had the most significant impact on economic feasibility for urban areas, and Ameur et al in [18] estimated the LCOE for different PV module cell types for the Morocco region.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Technoeconomic Assessment of Various Configurations Photovoltaic Systems for Energy and Hydrogen Production

Urs

Sadiq

Mayyas

et al. 2023

International Journal of Energy Research

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Photovoltaic (PV) system grid integration is becoming more global to minimize carbon emissions from traditional power systems. However, alternative solution investigation for maximum technical and economic benefits is often neglected when integrating PV systems. This study utilizes a methodology for evaluating the lifecycle energy generation and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of PV systems with various configurations using a holistic approach that considers PV system expenditures from installation to the end-of-life PV system operation. In addition, this work focuses on finding a better configuration with different PV modules (monofacial or bifacial) and structure types (mounted or single-axis) for three different utility scale PV sizes (300 kW, 500 kW, and 1000 kW) in Abu Dhabi, UAE, with the maximum power generation and minimal energy losses. Furthermore, the best suitable configuration was identified to be the configuration with a single-axis tracking structure and bifacial PV modules based on their technical and economic performance for the location with two different surface albedo, 0.2 and 0.8. We also study the PV system’s connection in a standalone off-grid solar-electrolyzer combination to produce green hydrogen. Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and levelized cost of hydrogen production (LCOH) are calculated, and results show that such PV systems can be used to generate electricity and produce hydrogen at competitive costs that can reach as low as 2.1 cent/kWh and $2.53/kg-H2 for LCOE and LCOH, respectively. Such a low cost is very competitive and can be used to attract new investments in green hydrogen technology in the United Arab Emirates.

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“…However, its analysis of future electrification scenarios showed that the optimal weight of solar PV generation systems decreases as electricity demand increases in contrast to wind turbines. Moreover, other studies have focused on PV self-consumption capacity at the municipal scale in urban areas of Spain, such as the cases of Seville [13], Irun [14], and Valencia [15]. In Seville, PV systems installed on the roofs of buildings (residential, services, and industrial) could virtually meet the electricity demand of the city.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Data-Driven Techno-Economic Analysis of Rooftop Photovoltaic Systems in the Spanish Residential Sector at Municipal Level

Vallès

Sáez

Boer

et al. 2023

36th International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy Systems (ECOS 20

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The current energy transition goals set by Spain in the PNIEC 2021-2030 anticipate a photovoltaic (PV) installed capacity of 39 GW by 2030, against the installed capacity of about 9 GW in 2020. The global improvement of PV systems' cost-effectiveness coupled with the current escalation in energy prices and the high annual solar energy potential of Spain are positive drivers. Thus, there has been an acceleration in the deployment of PV in the country, where the installed capacity has increased by 72% in the last two years, up to 15 GW. To study the potential contribution of residential rooftop PV systems in the future Spanish electricity mix, a data-driven multi-regional tool has been developed in Python. The hourly net electricity productionconsumption balance is obtained for one year by using specific hourly solar irradiation data and real hourly electricity consumption data for each of the 8,131 municipalities in Spain. Furthermore, the economic potential of such installations is evaluated with the consideration of different electricity market scenarios as well as surplus electricity compensation policies. The analysis of the results shows a capacity for self-consumption which is 3 to 4 times higher in rural areas than in urban areas when energy storage is not considered. Furthermore, the current compensation policies may negatively affect the economic profitability of PV systems in the areas with the most significant PV potential.

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Innovative regression-based methodology to assess the techno-economic performance of photovoltaic installations in urban areas

Cited by 19 publications

References 29 publications

Techno-Economic Potential of Urban Photovoltaics: Comparison of Net Billing and Net Metering in a Mediterranean Municipality

Techno-Economic Potential of Urban Photovoltaics: Comparison of Net Billing and Net Metering in a Mediterranean Municipality

Technoeconomic Assessment of Various Configurations Photovoltaic Systems for Energy and Hydrogen Production

Data-Driven Techno-Economic Analysis of Rooftop Photovoltaic Systems in the Spanish Residential Sector at Municipal Level

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