Innovative trend analysis of main agriculture natural hazards in China during 1989–2014

Jun-li, LI; Wu, Wenjun; Ye, Xinxin; Jiang, Hao; Gan, Ruijie; Hai-xia, WU; He, Jinglei; Jiang, Yan

doi:10.1007/s11069-018-3514-6

Cited by 42 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Mann-Kendall (MK) and Sen's slope tests were applied for the selected homogeneous hydrological and meteorological variables. Trend analysis is an effective method to detect changes in climatic and hydrological variables [14,16,20,26,55,[59][60][61]. e Mann-Kendall test has been widely used to detect trends in reference evapotranspiration, streamflow, temperature, and precipitation time series in different regions around the world [14,15,23,24,47,[62][63][64][65].…”

Section: Evaluation Of Homogeneity Testsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…us, the presence of trends in hydroclimatic variables may probably be due to a change in the climate. In the past few years, several studies have been conducted globally on spatial and temporal trend analyses of hydroclimatic data using nonparametric and parametric methods [16,23,25,43,60,[70][71][72][73][74][75][76][77][78]. ey mainly found that spatial-temporal trends analyses are very important for impact assessment, water resource planning and management, and adaptation of planning for extreme events (floods and droughts) in the face of climate change.…”

Section: Trends In Hydroclimaticmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Long-Term Homogeneity and Trends of Hydroclimatic Variables in Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

Daba

Ayele

Suning

2020

Advances in Meteorology

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Understanding long-term trends in hydroclimatic variables is important for future sustainable water resource management as it could show the possible regime shifts in hydrology. The main objective of this study was to analyze the homogeneity and trends of hydroclimatic data of Upper Awash Sab-Basin (UASB) in Oromia, Ethiopia, by employing homogeneity tests and Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope tests. The data consist of 18 rainfall stations, 8 temperature stations, and 8 flow gauging stations across the UASB. Homogeneity and trends in streamflow, rainfall, and temperature variables were analyzed for the time period 1980 to 2017. In order to analyze homogeneity of hydroclimatic variables, we used four homogeneity tests (Pettitt’s test, Buishand’s test, standard normal homogeneity test, and von Neumann ratio test) at 5% significance level. Based on the outputs of four homogeneity tests, the results were classified into three categories, namely, “useful,” “doubtful,” and “suspect” to select the homogeneity stations. Mann-Kendall (Z) and Sen’s slope tests (Q) were applied for the selected homogeneous time series to detect the trend and magnitude of changes in hydroclimatic variables. The result showed that most of the stations in annual rainfall and streamflow data series were classified as useful. It is found that 58% of the rainfall stations were homogeneous. It is highlighted that 3 out of 8 discharge gauging stations have an inhomogeneity as they failed from one or a combination of the four tests. The MK revealed significant decreasing trends of annual rainfall in Addis Alem (Q = −19.81), Akaki (Q = −5.60), Hombole (Q = −9.49), and Ghinch (Q = −12.38) stations. The trend of annual temperature was a significant increasing trend in Addis Ababa Bole (Q = 0.05), Addis Ababa Tikur Ambessa (Q = 0.03), Tulu Bolo (Q = 0.07), and Addis Alem (Q = 0.06) stations. The results of discharge showed a significant increasing trend in Bega at Mojo (Q = 0.17) and Hombole (Q = 0.03) gauging stations. In general, the results obtained from discharge, rainfall, and temperature series indicated that most of the stations exhibited no trends in both annual and seasonal time series. It can be concluded that decreases in average annual rainfall totals and increases in mean annual temperature will probably drive sub-basin scale changes in discharge. We believe that the results obtained can fill information gaps on homogeneity and trends of hydroclimatic variables, which is very crucial for future water resource planning and management in the face of climate change.

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Section: Evaluation Of Homogeneity Testsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Trends In Hydroclimaticmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-Term Homogeneity and Trends of Hydroclimatic Variables in Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

Daba

Ayele

Suning

2020

Advances in Meteorology

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“…Recently,Şen [26] proposed an innovative trend analysis (ITA) method that has used for pan evaporation [27], river flow [28], and rainfall [29] trend detection in different regions. Then, comparisons between ITA and classical methods show that ITA has some advantages over other methods [30]. Stream changes in the Western Mediterranean Basin for 55 years using observed data collected from six discharge gauge stations were investigated by Saplıoglu and Kilit [31].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Innovative Trend Analysis of Precipitation in the Lake Issyk-Kul Basin, Kyrgyzstan

et al. 2020

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The analysis of various characteristics and trends of precipitation is an essential task to improve the utilization of water resources. Lake Issyk-Kul basin is an upper alpine catchment, which is more susceptible to the effects of climate variability, and identifying rainfall variations has vital importance for water resource planning and management in the lake basin. The well-known approaches linear regression, Şen’s slope, Spearman’s rho, and Mann-Kendall trend tests are applied frequently to try to identify trend variations, especially in rainfall, in most literature around the world. Recently, a newly developed method of Şen-innovative trend analysis (ITA) provides some advantages of visual-graphical illustrations and the identification of trends, which is one of the main focuses in this article. This study obtained the monthly precipitation data (between 1951 and 2012) from three meteorological stations (Balykchy, Cholpon-Ata, and Kyzyl-Suu) surrounding the Lake Issyk-Kul, and investigated the trends of precipitation variability by applying the ITA method. For comparison purposes, the traditional Mann–Kendall trend test also used the same time series. The main results of this study include the following. (1) According to the Mann-Kendall trend test, the precipitation of all months at the Balykchy station showed a positive trend (except in January (Zc = −0.784) and July (Zc = 0.079)). At the Cholpon-Ata and Kyzyl-Suu stations, monthly precipitation (with the same month of multiple years averaged) indicated a decreasing trend in January, June, August, and November. At the monthly scale, significant increasing trends (Zc > Z0.10 = 1.645) were detected in February and October for three stations. (2) The ITA method indicated that the rising trends were seen in 16 out of 36 months at the three stations, while six months showed decreasing patterns for “high” monthly precipitation. According to the “low” monthly precipitations, 14 months had an increasing trend, and four months showed a decreasing trend. Through the application of the ITA method (January, March, and August at Balykchy; December at Cholpon-Ata; and July and December at Kyzyl-Suu), there were some significant increasing trends, but the Mann-Kendall test found no significant trends. The significant trend occupies 19.4% in the Mann-Kendall test and 36.1% in the ITA method, which indicates that the ITA method displays more positive significant trends than Mann–Kendall Zc. (3) Compared with the classical Mann-Kendall trend results, the ITA method has some advantages. This approach allows more detailed interpretations about trend detection, which has benefits for identifying hidden variation trends of precipitation and the graphical illustration of the trend variability of extreme events, such as “high” and “low” values of monthly precipitation. In contrast, these cannot be discovered by applying traditional methods.

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“…Together with the significance test proposed by Sen [24], the ITA method can analyze hidden trends in rainfall series that cannot be detected using traditional methods. For example, Li et al [66] showed that the ITA was able to successfully detect 138 significant trends (p < 0.01 or p < 0.05), including 89 time series that could not be detected when using the linear regression analysis (LRA) or MK methods. For 70 annual and seasonal precipitation series in the Yangtze delta, Wang et al [10] detected significant trends in 31 time series using the MK method, whereas 61 time series exhibited significant trends using the ITA method.…”

Section: Annual and Seasonal Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Innovative Trend Analysis of Air Temperature and Precipitation in the Jinsha River Basin, China

Dong

Jia

Sarukkalige

et al. 2020

Water

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Trend detection based on hydroclimatological time series is crucial for understanding climate change. In this study, the innovative trend analysis (ITA) method was applied to investigate trends in air temperature and precipitation over the Jinsha River Basin (JRB), China, from 1961 to 2016 based on 40 meteorological stations. Climatic factors series were divided into three categories according to percentile, and the hidden trends were evaluated separately. The ITA results show that annual and seasonal temperatures have significantly increased whereas the variation range of annual temperature tended to narrow. Spatial pattern analysis of the temperature indicates that high elevation areas show more increasing trends than flat areas. Furthermore, according to ITA, significant increase trends are observed in annual precipitation and “high” category of spring precipitation. The sub-basins results show a significant decreasing trend in elevation zones of ≤2000 m and an increasing trend where elevation is >2000 m. Moreover, linkage between temperature and precipitation was analyzed and the potential impact of the combined changes was demonstrated. The results of this study provide a reference for future water resources planning in the JRB and will help advance the understanding of climate change in similar areas.

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Innovative trend analysis of main agriculture natural hazards in China during 1989–2014

Cited by 42 publications

References 29 publications

Long-Term Homogeneity and Trends of Hydroclimatic Variables in Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

Long-Term Homogeneity and Trends of Hydroclimatic Variables in Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

Innovative Trend Analysis of Precipitation in the Lake Issyk-Kul Basin, Kyrgyzstan

Innovative Trend Analysis of Air Temperature and Precipitation in the Jinsha River Basin, China

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