Natural gas hydrates represent a promising clean energy source with vast reserves. Their efficient development is crucial for ensuring the sustainable advancement of human society. However, wellhead instability occurred in the long-term development, which poses a significant challenge that impacts its commercial development. In the present work, the properties of hydrate-bearing sediments were experimentally investigated. It was found that the elastic modulus, cohesion, and internal friction angle of hydrate-bearing sediments exhibit an increase with the effective stress. As an example, when the effective stress increases from 0 MPa to 25 MPa, the normalized elastic modulus exhibits a rise from 1.00 to 1.36. Conversely, the Poisson’s ratio, permeability, and porosity demonstrate a decline in accordance with this trend. As an example, both normalized porosity and permeability decrease to values below 0.40 as the effective stress increases to 25 MPa. Based on the experimental results and previous work, a comprehensive model for describing the effect of both hydrate saturation and effective stress on physical parameters was obtained. Subsequently, a multi-field coupled investigation methodology was developed to evaluate wellhead stability during the long-term development of hydrate-bearing sediments, and the evolution characteristics and mechanisms of wellhead instability were numerically explored. It reveals that development operation using the vertical wellbore decomposes hydrates in the surrounding sediments only within a radius of 19.52 m, which significantly undermines the wellhead stability. Moreover, the wellhead system not only sinks with sediment subsidence but also experiences additional sinking due to the failure of bonding between the wellhead system and sediments. Furthermore, the latter accounts for a significant portion, amounting to approximately 68.15% of the total sinking under the research conditions. This study can provide methodological prerequisites for exploring the impact of various factors on wellhead stability during the long-term hydrate development process.
