Shah, D. A., Molineros, J. E., Paul, P. A., Willyerd, K. T., Madden, L. V., and De Wolf, E. D. 2013. Predicting Fusarium head blight epidemics with weather-driven pre-and post-anthesis logistic regression models. Phytopathology 103:906-919.Our objective was to identify weather-based variables in pre-and postanthesis time windows for predicting major Fusarium head blight (FHB) epidemics (defined as FHB severity 10%) in the United States. A binary indicator of major epidemics for 527 unique observations (31% of which were major epidemics) was linked to 380 predictor variables summarizing temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall in 5-, 7-, 10-, 14-, or 15-daylong windows either pre-or post-anthesis. Logistic regression models were built with a training data set (70% of the 527 observations) using the leaps-and-bounds algorithm, coupled with bootstrap variable and model selection methods. Misclassification rates were estimated on the training and remaining (test) data. The predictive performance of models with indicator variables for cultivar resistance, wheat type (spring or winter), and corn residue presence was improved by adding up to four weatherbased predictors. Because weather variables were intercorrelated, no single model or subset of predictor variables was best based on accuracy, model fit, and complexity. Weather-based predictors in the 15 final empirical models selected were all derivatives of relative humidity or temperature, except for one rainfall-based predictor, suggesting that relative humidity was better at characterizing moisture effects on FHB than other variables. The average test misclassification rate of the final models was 19% lower than that of models currently used in a national FHB prediction system.Additional keywords: additive logistic regression, data mining, multiple imputation.In the United States, Fusarium head blight (FHB) of wheat (Triticum aestivum L. em. Thell) is caused primarily by Fusarium graminearum sensu stricto of the F. graminearum species complex (44). Major FHB epidemics have occurred somewhere in the United States in every decade since the disease was formally described by W. G. Smith in 1884 (60) although, in any given location, epidemics tend to occur sporadically. During the last two decades, U.S. wheat experienced large direct production losses because of FHB (35,36) and even larger indirect losses in other sectors of the economy (43), contributing to the characterization of FHB as a reemerging disease of importance (36,53). Increased corn (Zea mays) production in wheat-growing regions, concurrent with wider adoption of reduced tillage for soil conservation, were likely contributory factors to severe epidemics beginning in the latter part of the 19th century (36,60), as pathogen survival in corn residue is an acknowledged FHB risk factor (13,27). FHB epidemiological research includes (i) basic documentation of epidemics and observed weather conditions at the time, a mainly descriptive effort, followed by quantification of optimal (usually controlle...