InSAR Analysis of Post-Liquefaction Consolidation Subsidence after 2012 Emilia Earthquake Sequence (Italy)

Abstract

On 20 May 2012, an Mw 5.8 earthquake, followed by an Mw 5.6 event nine days later, struck the Emilia-Romagna region in northern Italy, causing substantial damage and loss of life. Post-mainshock, several water-related phenomena were observed, such as changes in the groundwater levels in wells, the expulsion of sand–water mixtures, and widespread liquefaction evidence such as sand boils and water leaks from cracks. We analyzed the Earth’s surface displacement during and after the Emilia 2012 seismic sequence using synthetic aperture radar images from the COSMO-SkyMed satellite constellation. This analysis revealed post-seismic ground subsidence between the Sant’Agostino and Mirabello villages. Specifically, the displacement time series showed a slight initial uplift followed by rapid subsidence over approximately four to five months. This widespread ground displacement pattern likely stemmed from the extensive liquefaction of saturated sandy layers at depth. This phenomenon typically induces immediate post-seismic subsidence. However, the observed asymptotic subsidence, reaching about 2.1 cm, suggested a time-dependent process related to post-liquefaction consolidation. To test this hypothesis, we analytically estimated the consolidation subsidence resulting from earthquake-induced excess pore pressure dissipation in the layered soil deposits. The simulated subsidence matched the observed data, further validating the significant role of excess pore pressure dissipation induced by earthquake loading in post-seismic ground subsidence.