Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making 2004
DOI: 10.1002/9780470752937.ch8
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Inside and Outside Probability Judgment

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Cited by 20 publications
(20 citation statements)
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“…Uncertainty theorists generally agree that variants of uncertainty exist, although their numbers and nature vary across different classifications (Hacking, 1966;Howell & Burnett, 1978;Kahneman & Tversky, 1982;Keren & Teigen, 2001;Lagnado & Sloman, 2007;Ülkümen, Fox, & Malle, 2016). Those variants reflect different psychological realities and obey different rules leading to different decision preferences (e.g., Brun & Teigen, 1990;Robinson, Pendle, Rowley, & Beck, 2009).…”
Section: The General Preference Accountsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Uncertainty theorists generally agree that variants of uncertainty exist, although their numbers and nature vary across different classifications (Hacking, 1966;Howell & Burnett, 1978;Kahneman & Tversky, 1982;Keren & Teigen, 2001;Lagnado & Sloman, 2007;Ülkümen, Fox, & Malle, 2016). Those variants reflect different psychological realities and obey different rules leading to different decision preferences (e.g., Brun & Teigen, 1990;Robinson, Pendle, Rowley, & Beck, 2009).…”
Section: The General Preference Accountsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Probability estimation in poker can be viewed as a process of evaluating successive hypotheses on the basis of accumulating evidence, which will inevitably depend upon which cues players attend to, and how they use this information. Kahneman and Lovallo (1993) discuss these attentional features and propose two modes of forecasting: the inside view and the outside view, which Lagnado and Sloman (2004) characterised with respect to probability judgment. The inside view is a singular mode of thinking and focuses on evidence for the most salient outcome, with an ignorance for other less obvious outcomes.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…As such, yƒ may arise from witnessing the repetitive occurrence of a finite outcome, from an introspective, experienced-based judgement of the strength of the association between the event and a particular outcome (Kahneman & Tversky, 1982/1982d, or else, from the use of (quasi) analytical rules whose appropriateness is determined by the extent of individuals' grasp of the probability calculus (Teigen, 1994). In any case, yƒ relies on distributional evidence, either consciously or associatively perceived, and reflects, more or less accurately, uncertainty in the outside world (Lagnado & Sloman, 2004). Finally, yb corresponds to the degree of confidence in an event's occurrence or truth and may be informed by a conscious computation of µ, the perception of ƒ, as well as some other sources of information such as the examination and balancing of evidence (Kahneman & Tversky, 1982) or the examination of the properties of an option as a mean to predict the probability of its success.…”
Section: The Psychological Meaning Of Uncertaintymentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Finally, yb corresponds to the degree of confidence in an event's occurrence or truth and may be informed by a conscious computation of µ, the perception of ƒ, as well as some other sources of information such as the examination and balancing of evidence (Kahneman & Tversky, 1982) or the examination of the properties of an option as a mean to predict the probability of its success. These latter two sources of information reflects an inside view of uncertainty which relies on singular evidence to evaluate the probability of an event (Lagnado & Sloman, 2004).…”
Section: The Psychological Meaning Of Uncertaintymentioning
confidence: 99%