Insiders, Outsiders, and Voters in the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election

Abstract

In 2008, both Barack Obama and John McCain repeatedly talked about “reform” and “change” on the campaign trail, presumably believing that voters would respond to a president who could challenge the established way of doing business. The authors gauge the significance of “reform” politics in 2008 through two analyses. First, they estimate a two‐dimensional issue space, paying particular attention to the possibility of a reform/establishment dimension. Second, they consider whether voters (1) preferred reform candidates, and (2) saw Obama or McCain as credible reform candidates. The data indicate the existence of a reform–establishment dimension. However, neither Obama nor McCain effectively convinced voters that they were reformers.

Beyond the left–right cleavage: Exploring American political choice space

“…Our analyses are then replicated with another national survey conducted in 2004. Our results generally support the recent findings presented in Hinich et al (2010) that in addition to the traditional left-right political economy continuum there is a second 'reform' dimension in recent US presidential elections. While Hinich et al contend that the second dimension is mainly about how voters see political competition as 'outsiders vs. insiders' (or 'insurgent vs. establishment'), our data further suggest that the nature of the second latent dimension appears to be associated with different reform prospects -represented by progressive low-politics reformists on one side, establishment/politics-as-usual proponents in the middle, and radical high-politics insurgents on the other side.…”

“…Following Chapter 9 of Enelow and Hinich (1984) we apply a statistical methodology created by Cahoon and Hinich (1976) (see also Ordeshook 1978 andHinich 2004) to data from a national survey in order to probe the two dimensional latent political choice space in American political competition. Our results support the argument presented in Hinich, Shaw and Huang (2010) that in addition to the traditional left-right political economy continuum there is a second dimension that is driven by a cleavage among different reform prospects, ranging from progressive reform to status-quo to divisive change. Implications of the reform dimension in American politics are discussed in conclusion.…”

“…Its development (Enelow and Hinich, 1984, ch. 9) and use have been widespread and successful as a tool for identifying the attitudinal proximity of survey respondents to electoral candidates (see Carkoglu and Hinich, 2006;Hinich and Munger, 1994;and Hinich et al, 2010). The method has also served as a reference point for other researchers who have constructed similar tools to perform such matching exercises in their own work (see, for example, Ansolabehere et al, 2001;Rabinowitz and Macdonald, 1989;and Poole, 1998).…”

In Through the Out Door: Examining the Use of Outsider Appeals in Presidential Debates

“…Though Ambar highlighted these governor-turned-presidents' outsider credentials, his analysis focused more on style of practical governance rather than campaign appeals. Hinich, Shaw, and Huang (2010) explored the usage of outsider appeals in the 2008 election between Senator Barack Obama (who had only held federal office for three years) and Senator John McCain (who was first elected to federal office in 1983), suggesting that both candidates attempted to convey themselves as reformers able to challenge the status quo in Washington, D.C. Hinich, Shaw, and Huang used a random-sample survey of 1,000 adult Texans to measure the public's perception of each candidate, finding that "Obama seems to have been seen as not quite part of the Washington establishment, but not quite an outsider. McCain, on the other hand, was clearly seen as representing the status quo" (278).…”

Politics as Unusual? Exploring Issues and the 2016 Presidential Vote*

“…Hinich, Shaw, and Huang (2010) use the terminology "reform" to describe to this dimension. 11 Though establishment figures, Bush and Cheney emphasized their "anti-politics as usual" credentials in 2000, particularly after McCain had so powerfully exploited this maverick persona during the Republican primaries.12 Factor loadings are available in the Supporting Information Online Appendix.…”