Insights into projected changes in marine heatwaves from a high-resolution ocean circulation model

Hayashida, Hakase; Matear, Richard J.; Strutton, Peter G.; Zhang, Xuebin

doi:10.1038/s41467-020-18241-x

Cited by 72 publications

(70 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…outputs from all the selected GCMs were not available at the time this study was launched, so whether the mechanisms behind the extreme events will change could not be assessed. Nevertheless, recent studies have confirmed the results of [18] showing that the driver for MHW changes in most regions of the world is the change in the mean state, rather than changes in the intra-seasonal variability [7,38]. Therefore, here we focus on assessing how the changes in the mean state would modify the statistics of MHWs in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.…”

Section: Plos Onementioning

confidence: 85%

Assessment of Red Sea temperatures in CMIP5 models for present and future climate

et al. 2021

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The increase of the temperature in the Red Sea basin due to global warming could have a large negative effect on its marine ecosystem. Consequently, there is a growing interest, from the scientific community and public organizations, in obtaining reliable projections of the Red Sea temperatures throughout the 21st century. However, the main tool used to do climate projections, the global climate models (GCM), may not be well suited for that relatively small region. In this work we assess the skills of the CMIP5 ensemble of GCMs in reproducing different aspects of the Red Sea 3D temperature variability. The results suggest that some of the GCMs are able to reproduce the present variability at large spatial scales with accuracy comparable to medium and high-resolution hindcasts. In general, the skills of the GCMs are better inside the Red Sea than outside, in the Gulf of Aden. Based on their performance, 8 of the original ensemble of 43 GCMs have been selected to project the temperature evolution of the basin. Bearing in mind the GCM limitations, this can be an useful benchmark once the high resolution projections are available. Those models project an averaged warming at the end of the century (2080–2100) of 3.3 ±> 0.6°C and 1.6 ±> 0.4°C at the surface under the scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP4.5, respectively. In the deeper layers the warming is projected to be smaller, reaching 2.2 ±> 0.5°C and 1.5 ±> 0.3°C at 300 m. The projected warming will largely overcome the natural multidecadal variability, which could induce temporary and moderate decrease of the temperatures but not enough to fully counteract it. We have also estimated how the rise of the mean temperature could modify the characteristics of the marine heatwaves in the region. The results show that the average length of the heatwaves would increase ~15 times and the intensity of the heatwaves ~4 times with respect to the present conditions under the scenario RCP8.5 (10 time and 3.6 times, respectively, under scenario RCP4.5).

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Section: Plos Onementioning

confidence: 85%

Assessment of Red Sea temperatures in CMIP5 models for present and future climate

et al. 2021

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“…Climate change is projected to increase sea temperature mean and variability (Hayashida et al, 2020; Hurd et al, 2018). Consequently, species with narrower temperature tolerance are more likely to be negatively impacted by these environmental changes (Perry et al, 2005; Sunday et al, 2012).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Climate change is projected to increase sea temperature mean and variability (Hayashida et al, 2020;Hurd et al, 2018). Consequently, F I G U R E 1 Conceptual schematic drawing of the CRA framework applied to our specific study.…”

Section: Temperature Tolerance Rangementioning

confidence: 99%

Contrasted patterns in climate change risk for Mediterranean fisheries

Pita

Mouillot

Moullec

et al. 2021

Global Change Biology

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Climate change is rapidly becoming one of the biggest threats to marine life, and its impacts have the potential to strongly affect fisheries upon which millions of people rely. This is particularly crucial for the Mediterranean Sea, which is one of the world's biodiversity hotspots, one of the world's most overfished regions, and where temperatures are rising 25% faster than in the rest of the ocean on average. In this study, we calculated a vulnerability index for 100 species that compose 95% of the Mediterranean catches, through a trait‐based approach. The Climate Risk Assessment (CRA) methodology was subsequently used to assess the risks due to climate change of Mediterranean fisheries. We found that the northern Mediterranean fisheries target more vulnerable species than their southern counterparts. However, when combining this catch‐based vulnerability with a suite of socio‐economic parameters, north African countries stand out as the most vulnerable to climate change impacts. Indeed, considering countries’ exposure of the fisheries sector and their vulnerability to climate change, a sharp contrast between northern and southern Mediterranean appears, with Egypt and Tunisia scoring the highest risk. By integrating a trait‐based approach on targeted marine species with socio‐economic features, our analysis helps to better understand the ramifications of climate change consequences on Mediterranean fisheries and highlights the regions that could potentially be particularly affected.

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“…Western boundary currents (WBCs) are global warming hot-spots (Popova et al, 2016;Wu et al, 2012) where MHWs have been found to be more intense and frequent (Hayashida et al, 2020). WBCs, such as the Kuroshio Current, Agulhas Current and the EAC, are areas of strong poleward advection that are characterised by large sea surface temperature (SST) variability.…”

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confidence: 99%

Oceanic Circulation Drives the Deepest and Longest Marine Heatwaves in the East Australian Current System

Elzahaby

Schaeffer

Roughan

et al. 2021

Geophysical Research Letters

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Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are extreme ocean warming events that are profoundly detrimental to marine ecosystems and, in turn, local economies. Following the now widely accepted definition proposed by Hobday et al. (2016Hobday et al. ( , 2018, MHWs are discrete, prolonged anomalously warm water events. Numerous studies have covered their impacts, which range from widespread mortality of marine organisms and ecosystem redistribution to severe financial burdens on local fisheries and governments (Salinger et al., 2019;

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Insights into projected changes in marine heatwaves from a high-resolution ocean circulation model

Cited by 72 publications

References 44 publications

Assessment of Red Sea temperatures in CMIP5 models for present and future climate

Assessment of Red Sea temperatures in CMIP5 models for present and future climate

Contrasted patterns in climate change risk for Mediterranean fisheries

Oceanic Circulation Drives the Deepest and Longest Marine Heatwaves in the East Australian Current System

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