Insights into the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 pandemicvia Shannon-Fisher causality plane

Abstract

This paper performs a systematic investigation into the temporal evolution of severe acute respiratory disease coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic considering 15 diverse countries. Based on the foundations of Information Theory, we apply the Shannon-Fisher causality plane (SFCP), to map the dynamics behavior inherent to SARS-CoV-2 and their respective locations along the (SFCP). Our results show that this dynamics varies widely along the SFCP from the lower-right region, characterized by high entropy and low degree of reliability in relation to the information extracted from the analyzed data set to the top-right region, characterized by the less entropic and high degree of reliability in relation to the information extracted from the analyzed data set. It reveals that we have three different groups of countries in controlling the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. A country that was proactive in implementing measures such as social distancing, quarantine, orders to stay at home, testing symptomatic and asymptomatic loads and hygienic measures to limit the impacts of SARS-Cov-2 (China) and that today is clearly in the decay phase with the number of cases tending to zero and is no longer in a pandemic situation (efficient). Moderately proactive countries, ie, implemented measures only when the spread of SARS-Cov-2 was already reaching the country (France, Germany, United Kingdom, Spain, Sweden, Italy, Ireland, USA, Austria, and Canada) (moderately efficient) and the reactive countries, which took a long time to implement the measures and/or the infection came later and as a result are not managing to reduce the number of daily cases of SARS-CoV-2 (Russia, Iran, Brazil, and India) (inefficient) and are the new epicenters of the SARS-COV-2 pandemic. Besides, we applied the Bandt Pompe permutation entropy (H) and the Fisher Information (F) to obtain the rank of the most efficient countries to the fight against the SARS-CoV-2. To the best of our knowledge, no researches have been ranking the most proactive countries in the fight against the SARS-CoV-2 dissemination. We truly believe that the empirical results showed in this research draws new perspectives that can collaborate in the formulation of more efficient healthy public policies to combat SARS-CoV-2 spread.