The daily media are replete with stories of disasters in various parts of the world-hurricanes, tsunamis, earthquakes, droughts, floods, civil wars, mass shootings, terrorist attacks. Opinion surveys offer pessimistic or even fatalistic assessments of the state of the world. There is also no shortage of gloomy prognostication from policy and academic circles-climate change catastrophe, nuclear Armageddon in the Middle East or on the Korean peninsula, military conflict between China and the