T he prevalence of overweight and obesity has increased rapidly over the last decades in all areas of the world. 1 This has raised serious public health concerns owing to the association between overweight and obesity and the increased risk of a wide range of chronic diseases, including cardiovascular diseases, type 2 diabetes mellitus, total mortality, and several types of cancer.
2-4
Clinical Perspective on p 649Heart failure is a major public concern. Heart failure affected ≈5 million Americans in 2005, and economic costs are estimated at US $27.9 billion.5 Mortality in heart failure remains high, ranging from 20% to 40% despite advances in the management of heart failure. 6,7 Several prospective studies have reported increased risk of heart failure with a greater body mass index (BMI), and although most studies report an increased risk of heart failure in the obese range (BMI ≥30 kg/m 2 ), it is less clear whether overweight (BMI, kg/ m 2 ) increases the risk; some studies found a significant association, 10,16,17,20,25,31,32 whereas others did not. 8,12,19,21,23,[27][28][29][30]33,34 A pooled analysis of 32 cohort studies in Asia and the Pacific found an increased risk of heart failure mortality among obese individuals, but there was no association among overweight subjects. 35 However, it is possible that the association between BMI and heart failure differs for incidence and mortality because mortality depends on both the incidence and prognosis after heart failure is established and because there is indication of an obesity paradox observed in heart failure patients, with improved survival among overweight and obese persons with established heart failure. 36 This uncertainty is also reflected in the Heart Failure Society of America practice guidelines in which the goal for management of BMI is set at a BMI <30 kg/m 2 . 37 However, this may be a suboptimal goal if risk of heart failure incidence also increases in overweight subjects.Background-Obesity has been associated with increased risk of heart failure, but whether overweight also increases risk is unclear. It is also unclear whether abdominal adiposity is more strongly associated with heart failure risk than general adiposity. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies to clarify the strength and shape of the dose-response relationship between general and abdominal adiposity and the risk of heart failure. Methods and Results-PubMed and Embase databases were searched up to October 10, 2014. Summary relative risks were calculated using random-effects models. A total of 28 studies (27 publications) were included. Twenty-three prospective studies with >15 905 incident cases among 647 388 participants were included in the analysis of body mass index and heart failure incidence, and 4 studies were included for heart failure mortality. The summary relative risk for a 5-unit increment in body mass index was 1.41 (95% confidence interval, 1.34-1.47; I 2 =83%) for heart failure incidence and 1.26 (95% confidence interval, 0....