Intact predictive processing in autistic adults: evidence from statistical learning

Abstract

Impairment in predictive processes gained a lot of attention in recent years as an explanation for autistic symptoms. However, empirical evidence does not always underpin this framework. Thus, it is unclear what aspects of predictive processing are affected in autism spectrum disorder. In this study, we tested autistic adults on a task in which participants acquire probability-based regularities (that is, a statistical learning task). Twenty neurotypical and 22 autistic adults learned a probabilistic, temporally distributed regularity for about 40 min. Using frequentist and Bayesian methods, we found that autistic adults performed comparably to neurotypical adults, and the dynamics of learning did not differ between groups either. Thus, our study provides evidence for intact statistical learning in autistic adults. Furthermore, we discuss potential ways this result can extend the scope of the predictive processing framework, noting that atypical processing might not always mean a deficit in performance.

Intact ultrafast memory consolidation and learning dynamics in children and adults with autism and neurotypicals with autism traits

“…Contradictory to our expectations, we did not find evidence in favor of altered dynamics of statistical learning in autism (which would have been indicated by a significant learning phase and group interaction). Research has shown that statistical learning (Brown et al, 2010;Foti et al, 2015;Fucà et al, 2021;Izadi-Najafabadi et al, 2015;Nemeth et al, 2010;Obeid et al, 2016;Pesthy et al, 2023;Treves et al, 2023) and consolidation (Nemeth et al, 2010) are intact in autism, and here, we did not observe significant differences between the groups regarding underlying mechanisms of learning.…”

“…Before assessing our main research question, we tested statistical learning employing the methods of the original article (Pesthy et al, 2023), using our own data quality control measures. This showed that participants successfully learnt the statistical characteristics of the task and there were no differences in the groups' performance.…”

“…More specifically, the possibility of altered neural and behavioral mechanisms behind ultrafast consolidation in autism motivated our research. When all learning data points were taken into account, all datasets showed that there was a significant statistical and general skill learning effect and the diagnosis of autism or higher level of autistic traits did not altered learning (see Nemeth et al, (2010) and Supplementary materials for Study 1; Pesthy et al, (2023) and Supplementary materials for Study 2, and Supplementary materials for Study 3).…”

“…Please note that we used a different method to calculate learning scores than the original articles did. The original articles computed learning scores based on trials across the entire block, which revealed strong learning effects in general (see Nemeth et al, 2010;Pesthy et al, 2023). In contrast, we computed learning scores for each bin of 16 trials, and we only analyzed the first and the last bin statistically.…”

“…Despite these symptoms, ASD patients often perform similarly to neurotypical participants in cognitive processes. For example, forms of learning that underlie skills and habits, such as statistical learning (learning probability-based regularities) remain intact in autism (e.g., Brown et al, 2010;Fucà et al, 2021;Izadi-Najafabadi et al, 2015;Nemeth et al, 2010;Pesthy et al, 2023;Treves et al, 2023; for meta-analyses see Foti et al, 2015;Obeid et al, 2016). However, beneath the similar behavioral outcomes of ASD and neurotypical individuals, there may be multiple altered neurocognitive pathways (Baxter et al, 2019;Karmiloff-Smith, 1998;Müller, 2007;Schipul & Just, 2016).…”