Integrated approach for security of electricity supply analysis

Abstract

The methods and tools needed for security of supply assessment range from long term market models for predicting future generation and load patterns to more detailed network simulation models for analyzing contingencies and reliability of supply for delivery points. This paper describes an integrated approach for security of electricity supply analysis, by the integration of power system reliability analysis with the power market analysis. An integrated methodology will enable the long-term security of supply assessment and provide a more consistent input to the various analyses, as well as a better information exchange and interaction between the different methods and tools involved. The integrated methodology is under development in an ongoing research project focusing the power system reliability analysis, making it possible to take the risk of extraordinary events into account.

Scenario selection in composite reliability assessment of deregulated power systems

“…Only evaluation of indices used in the case studies, described in section 5 and 6, are presented here. A complete description of the reliability analysis is found in [3,10].…”

“…In analytical techniques, the reliability assessment is usually based on one load scenario only, typically the heavy load situation. To make a connection between the power market and the generation and transmission system models used in the reliability assessment, a power market model is used to generate load and generation schedules for the power system under study [3]. The discussions and analyses in this paper focus on the Nordic power system.…”

“…For instance, considering 5 load periods per week for 75 years of historic data, gives 19500 different power market scenarios. This high number of scenarios results in very high computational requirements for the reliability assessment [3].…”

Data reduction via clustering and averaging for contingency and reliability analysis

“…This is obtained by generating a set of operational states (OPs), where each state represents a certain future generation and load scenario [1].…”

“…This will reduce the number of operational states needed to be analyzed in the contingency analysis substantially, while retaining much of the details/accuracy generated by the power market model. This framework will typically be useful in a security of electricity supply analysis, see [1] for a complete description.…”