Integrated assessment of agricultural policies with dynamic land use change modelling

Delden, Hedwig van; Stuczyński, Tomasz; Ciaian, Pavel; Paracchini, Maria Luisa; Hurkens, Jelle; Łopatka, Artur; Shi, Yuejiang; Prieto, Oscar Gomez; Calvo, Sílvia; Vliet, Jasper van; Vanhout, Roel

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.03.023

Cited by 79 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…Metronamica is a spatial decision support system based on cellular automata, which allows for the preparation of projections of potential future changes in land use in different scenarios [61,63]. Each scenario can be assessed based on indicators that are calculated from a raster format of the used data [60]. The calibration and verification stages require two separate time-horizons of land use changes [64].…”

Section: Cellular Automata Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The applicability of this assessment model is illustrated through a scenario-based approach to study changes in land development, in which the case of the Wrocław Larger Urban Zone (Poland) [59] is presented. The model uses a decision support system based on cellular automata, which is currently used as a highly specialized knowledge-based tool [60,61]. Each scenario was assessed according to the possibility of UHI appearance in specific parts of the area.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Use of a Decision Support System for Sustainable Urbanization and Thermal Comfort in Adaptation to Climate Change Actions—The Case of the Wrocław Larger Urban Zone (Poland)

Kazak

2018

Sustainability

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Abstract:The increasing level of antropopression has a negative impact on environmental resources and has reached the level of our planetary boundaries. One limitation is land use change caused by urbanization. Global policies prove the need to undertake action in order to develop more sustainable human settlements, which would be adapted better to potential future climate change effects. Among such changes are the increase of average temperatures and extreme events like heat waves. Those changes are more severe in urban areas due to land use development, and result in the urban heat island effect (UHI), which has a negative impact on the thermal comfort of citizens. The paper presents a decision support system that can be used for the assessment of areas to the potential exposure to the UHI effect. The system integrates scenario analysis, land use modelling in cellular automata (Metronamica), and an indicator-based assessment in a geographic information system (ArcGIS). The applicability of the model is illustrated through developing scenarios for the future land use allocation of the Wrocław Larger Urban Zone (Poland). The results of the calculations show which scenario is the least vulnerable to UHI effects. Moreover, for each scenario, cores of urban areas were identified, in which certain urban design patterns accounting for adaptation to climate change could be implemented. The study provides a guideline for local authorities on where to focus actions in order to create more sustainable urban structures and to better adapt to climate change and environmental extremes.

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Section: Cellular Automata Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Use of a Decision Support System for Sustainable Urbanization and Thermal Comfort in Adaptation to Climate Change Actions—The Case of the Wrocław Larger Urban Zone (Poland)

Kazak

2018

Sustainability

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“…Moreover, the technical and spatial analysis methodologies that have been recently developed could ensure both the proper management and planning of land, especially if tailored to environmental protection and to efficient control of the agricultural and forestry resources. Suitable models for policy impact assessment (Brown and Brabyn 2012) should help to harmonize the EU agricultural policies and socioeconomic processes at different levels and in different sectors (i.e., local zoning regulations, infrastructure planning, and interaction between these sectors) as well as external factors such as climate change and socioeconomic drivers (Van Delden et al 2010). Landscapes are spatially diverse, leading to the unequal distribution of landscape services over an area.…”

Section: Application Of New Technologies On Historical Maps For the Amentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Over recent years, different systems have been developed with the aim of providing support to policy makers in the field of agricultural development (Van Delden et al 2010). According to this scenario, an accurate analysis of the performed variations and the global monitoring of all ecosystems are necessary to propose suitable environmental protection politics (Picuno et al 2011).…”

Section: Application Of New Technologies On Historical Maps For the Amentioning

confidence: 99%

New Technologies for the Sustainable Management and Planning of Rural Land and Environment

Picuno

Sica

Dimitrijevic

et al. 2015

The Sustainability of Agro-Food and Natural Resource Systems in the Mediterranean Basin

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New technologies could be adequately introduced for an improved analysis aimed to the sustainable management and planning of the rural land, as well as its environment and landscape. Nowadays, this analysis is easier and more complete through the use of powerful and reliable tools. Several changes can be considered to be as models of territorial development, useful for an appropriate planning of the human interventions in a rural area. Remote sensing techniques could be employed for the monitoring of agricultural land variation, while Geographical Information Systems are excellent tools for landscape modeling and three-dimensional analysis. In this chapter, land-use changes in a rural area located in southern Italy were analyzed by comparing some historical cartographic supports with modern maps, in order to evaluate the morphological and vegetation variations of the agroforestry land during time. Moreover, a landscape analysis was conducted through the implementation of digital terrain models, which were enriched by draping land cover pictures over them. These elaborations finally enabled an evaluation in a scenic way of the aesthetic quality of the agroforestry landscape, allowing a virtual jump back to time periods when digital aerial photography was not yet even possible. This multi-temporal analysis with the support of GIS techniques revealed to have a great potential for assessing and managing landscape diversity and changes of vegetation, as well as for planning sound interventions over the landscape structures.

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“…These models include a wider variety of sectors having less focus on the agricultural system particularities (van Delden et al 2010). This framework was used to investigate the impact of introducing an EU wide flat area payment after 2013, together with the impact of different CAP measures on the biodiversity and land allocation (Verburg et al 2006;Verbooma et al 2007;Erjavec et al 2011).…”

Section: Doi: 1017221/116/2014-agriceconmentioning

confidence: 99%

An ex-ante impact assessment of the Common Agricultural Policy reform in the North-Western Romania

Jitea¹,

Dumitraş²,

Simu³

2015

AGR ECON-CZECH

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Th e paper aims to assess the impact of the Common Agricultural Policy reform (post 2014) in the environmental vulnerable areas from Romania. It proposes a bio-economic dynamic farm model calibrated with the positive mathematical programming (PMP). Th e standard PMP approach was extended to simulate the mixed farming systems through the introduction of a livestock production activity in the fi rst calibration step. It allows incorporating activities not available in the base year, but that can be performed by the farmers after the future policy reforms. Th e model provides supply-responses for both the crop and livestock farms according to the agricultural and fi nancial policy shifts. It maximizes the farm net fi nancial fl ows subject to the resource, livestock, fi nancial and agricultural policy constraints. Th e initialisation data were obtained from a face-to-face stratifi ed survey applied on the mixed-sheep farms that have used grassland areas under the Agri-Environment Schemes (AES) in the North-Western Romania (Transylvania). Th e results show that the most vulnerable group to the policy changes is represented by the small-size farms, to which the AES are very important economic drivers. Th us, the diversifi cation and the off -farm employments possibilities should be integrated into the future rural development plans as a premise for their survival.

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Integrated assessment of agricultural policies with dynamic land use change modelling

Cited by 79 publications

References 13 publications

The Use of a Decision Support System for Sustainable Urbanization and Thermal Comfort in Adaptation to Climate Change Actions—The Case of the Wrocław Larger Urban Zone (Poland)

The Use of a Decision Support System for Sustainable Urbanization and Thermal Comfort in Adaptation to Climate Change Actions—The Case of the Wrocław Larger Urban Zone (Poland)

New Technologies for the Sustainable Management and Planning of Rural Land and Environment

An ex-ante impact assessment of the Common Agricultural Policy reform in the North-Western Romania

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