Integrated assessment of changes in freshwater inflow to the Arctic Ocean

Dyurgerov, Mark B.; Bring, Arvid; Destouni, Georgia

doi:10.1029/2009jd013060

Cited by 38 publications

(39 citation statements)

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“…We here synthesize information on these topics by integrating a set of previous studies of Arctic hydro-climatic change (Bring and Destouni 2009Dyurgerov et al 2010). We also extend the results from these reports with an additional analysis of GCM projection performance for major Arctic hydrological basins.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 67%

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Arctic Climate and Water Change: Model and Observation Relevance for Assessment and Adaptation

Bring

Destouni

2013

Surv Geophys

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The Arctic is subject to growing economic and political interest. Meanwhile, its climate and water systems are in rapid transformation. In this paper, we review and extend a set of studies on climate model results, hydro-climatic change, and hydrological monitoring systems. Results indicate that general circulation model (GCM) projections of drainage basin temperature and precipitation have improved between two model generations. However, some inaccuracies remain for precipitation projections. When considering geographical priorities for monitoring or adaptation efforts, our results indicate that future projections by GCMs and recent observations diverge regarding the basins where temperature and precipitation changes currently are the most pronounced and where they will be so in the future. Regarding late twentieth-century discharge changes in major Arctic rivers, data generally show excess of water relative to precipitation changes. This indicates a possible contribution to sea-level rise of river water that was previously stored in permafrost or groundwater. The river contribution to the increasing Arctic Ocean freshwater inflow is similar in magnitude to the separate contribution from glaciers, which underlines the importance of considering all possible sources of freshwater when assessing sea-level change. We further investigate monitoring systems and find a lack of harmonized water chemistry data, which limits the ability to understand the origin and transport of nutrients, carbon and sediment to the sea. To provide adequate information for research and policy, Arctic hydrological and hydrochemical monitoring needs to be extended, better integrated and made more accessible. Further water-focused data and modeling efforts are required to resolve the source of excess discharge in Arctic rivers. Finally, improvements in climate model parameterizations are needed, in particular for precipitation projections.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 67%

“…In the following, we summarize the data and methods used in the synthesized previous studies (Bring and Destouni 2009Dyurgerov et al 2010) and the novel extensions in this paper. For a more detailed account of the methods used in the previous studies, we refer to the aforementioned publications.…”

Section: Methods Summarymentioning

confidence: 99%

Arctic Climate and Water Change: Model and Observation Relevance for Assessment and Adaptation

Bring

Destouni

2013

Surv Geophys

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“…Dyurgerov et al (2010) have further reported that river runoff to the Arctic Ocean has increased independently of, but with similar magnitude as the increase in freshwater input from glacier melting. This points to the importance of establishing the source of the growing river component in the Arctic Ocean freshwater budget.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 83%

“…Serreze et al (2002) however found only low correlation between P-E and runoff across the pan-Arctic drainage basin, except for the Lena basin. Several studies have discussed a possible contribution of melting permafrost to increased runoff (Serreze et al 2002;Adam and Lettenmaier 2008;Dyurgerov et al 2010), but at least for the Eurasian Arctic, the total volumes of melting permafrost that are needed to explain the long-term runoff increases seem unrealistic (McClelland et al 2004). …”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Many of the environmental changes that have been observed, and also are expected in the future, manifest themselves through changes in the hydrological cycle White et al 2007;Dyurgerov et al 2010). Changing dynamics of the water cycle may have large impacts on infrastructure (Lawrence and Slater 2005), transportation, natural resource exploration (Lange 2008), and other economic activities in the region.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Relevance of Hydro-Climatic Change Projection and Monitoring for Assessment of Water Cycle Changes in the Arctic

Bring

Destouni

2010

AMBIO

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Rapid changes to the Arctic hydrological cycle challenge both our process understanding and our ability to find appropriate adaptation strategies. We have investigated the relevance and accuracy development of climate change projections for assessment of water cycle changes in major Arctic drainage basins. Results show relatively good agreement of climate model projections with observed temperature changes, but high model inaccuracy relative to available observation data for precipitation changes. Direct observations further show systematically larger (smaller) runoff than precipitation increases (decreases). This result is partly attributable to uncertainties and systematic bias in precipitation observations, but still indicates that some of the observed increase in Arctic river runoff is due to water storage changes, for example melting permafrost and/or groundwater storage changes, within the drainage basins. Such causes of runoff change affect sea level, in addition to ocean salinity, and inland water resources, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Process-based hydrological modeling and observations, which can resolve changes in evapotranspiration, and groundwater and permafrost storage at and below river basin scales, are needed in order to accurately interpret and translate climate-driven precipitation changes to changes in freshwater cycling and runoff. In contrast to this need, our results show that the density of Arctic runoff monitoring has become increasingly biased and less relevant by decreasing most and being lowest in river basins with the largest expected climatic changes.

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Arctic terrestrial hydrology: A synthesis of processes, regional effects, and research challenges

et al. 2016

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Terrestrial hydrology is central to the Arctic system and its freshwater circulation. Water transport and water constituents vary, however, across a very diverse geography. In this paper, which is a component of the Arctic Freshwater Synthesis, we review the central freshwater processes in the terrestrial Arctic drainage and how they function and change across seven hydrophysiographical regions (Arctic tundra, boreal plains, shield, mountains, grasslands, glaciers/ice caps, and wetlands). We also highlight links between terrestrial hydrology and other components of the Arctic freshwater system. In terms of key processes, snow cover extent and duration is generally decreasing on a pan-Arctic scale, but snow depth is likely to increase in the Arctic tundra. Evapotranspiration will likely increase overall, but as it is coupled to shifts in landscape characteristics, regional changes are uncertain and may vary over time. Streamflow will generally increase with increasing precipitation, but high and low flows may decrease in some regions. Continued permafrost thaw will trigger hydrological change in multiple ways, particularly through increasing connectivity between groundwater and surface water and changing water storage in lakes and soils, which will influence exchange of moisture with the atmosphere. Other effects of hydrological change include increased risks to infrastructure and water resource planning, ecosystem shifts, and growing flows of water, nutrients, sediment, and carbon to the ocean. Coordinated efforts in monitoring, modeling, and processing studies at various scales are required to improve the understanding of change, in particular at the interfaces between hydrology, atmosphere, ecology, resources, and oceans.

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Integrated assessment of changes in freshwater inflow to the Arctic Ocean

Cited by 38 publications

References 45 publications

Arctic Climate and Water Change: Model and Observation Relevance for Assessment and Adaptation

Arctic Climate and Water Change: Model and Observation Relevance for Assessment and Adaptation

Relevance of Hydro-Climatic Change Projection and Monitoring for Assessment of Water Cycle Changes in the Arctic

Arctic terrestrial hydrology: A synthesis of processes, regional effects, and research challenges

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