Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Corn Yield in the U.S. Using a Crop Model

Abstract

ABSTRACT. A detailed analysis was conducted of the effects of climate change and increased carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations on corn yield in the U.S. with a crop model using outputs from multiple general circulation models (multi-GCMs

Crop Modeling Applications in Agricultural Water Management

“…Maize yield was simulated for 1999-2010, for the 2050s (average for 2041-2060), and for the 2070s (average for 2061-2080) under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) climate scenario. Tatsumi (2017) reported a shortening of the growing period, decreased WUE in almost all regions, and increased ET during the growing period in almost all regions except the southern U.S. Using multi-GCMs, the simulations under the RCP8.5 climate scenario resulted in negative effects of climate change on yield in almost all regions during both future periods.…”

“…Two articles in the collection discuss crop model applications on large spatial scales: Tatsumi (2017) and Sharda et al (2017). Crop models linked with geographic information systems (GIS) and general circulation models (GCMs) are useful tools for conducting regional assessments on the impacts of climate change, on the implementation of mitigation practices, and for the support of policy making.…”

“…Crop models linked with geographic information systems (GIS) and general circulation models (GCMs) are useful tools for conducting regional assessments on the impacts of climate change, on the implementation of mitigation practices, and for the support of policy making. Tatsumi (2017) conducted a detailed analysis of the effects of climate change and increased carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations on maize yield across the U.S. using the EPIC (Williams, 1995) crop model and outputs from multiple general circulation models (multi-GCMs). Maize yield was simulated for 1999-2010, for the 2050s (average for 2041-2060), and for the 2070s (average for 2061-2080) under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) climate scenario.…”

“…On the other hand, there were relatively smaller negative impacts in high latitude regions (approximately north of latitude 40° N) due to more optimal growing conditions because of larger temperature changes and less water stress compared to low and mid-latitude regions. Tatsumi (2017) concluded that higher CO 2 concentrations have the potential to increase maize yield. CO 2 effects resulted in an approximately 0.04% to 0.05% increase in yield per 1 ppm increase in CO 2 concentration under the RCP8.5 climate scenario, but the negative impacts of increased temperatures fully outweighed the CO 2 -fertilization effects.…”

Current Research in Land, Water, and Agroecosystems: ASABE Journals 2017 Year in Review

“…Remote sensing ET estimates using METRIC demonstrated the potential to use irrigation to increase crop ET as a flood-mitigation strategy (Büyükcangaz et al, 2017). Other simulation studies of crop ET are discussed in the sections on crop modeling (DeJonge and Marek et al, 2017) and climate change effects (Mishra et al, 2017;Tatsumi, 2017).…”