Integrated detection of disruption scenarios, the ripple effect dispersal and recovery paths in supply chains

Павлов, А. В.; Ivanov, Dmitry; Werner, Frank; Dolgui, Alexandre; Sokolov, Boris

doi:10.1007/s10479-019-03454-1

Cited by 84 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…Recent literature , Lücker et al, 2019, Schmitt et al, 2017Gupta and Ivanov, 2020) has recognized the risk mitigation inventory, lead-time and backup suppliers as crucial elements affecting the SC reactions to disruptions. Moreover, the ripple effect is usually accompanying the disruptions which are rarely to be localized and usually spread over many SC echelons (Ivanov et al, 2014, Garvey et al, 2015, Dolgui et al, 2018, Ivanov et al, 2019b, Pavlov et al, 2019b, Li and Zobel, 2020. Anparasan and Lejeune (2018) presented a data set of the cholera epidemic that occurred in the aftermath of the 2010 earthquake in Haiti.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the impacts of epidemic outbreaks on global supply chains: A simulation-based analysis on the coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) case

Ivanov

2020

Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Re

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Epidemic outbreaks are a special case of supply chain (SC) risks which is distinctively characterized by a long-term disruption existence, disruption propagations (i.e., the ripple effect), and high uncertainty. We present the results of a simulation study that opens some new research tensions on the impact of COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) on the global SCs. First, we articulate the specific features that frame epidemic outbreaks as a unique type of SC disruption risks. Second, we demonstrate how simulation-based methodology can be used to examine and predict the impacts of epidemic outbreaks on the SC performance using the example of coronavirus COVID-19 and anyLogistix simulation and optimization software. We offer an analysis for observing and predicting both short-term and long-term impacts of epidemic outbreaks on the SCs along with managerial insights. A set of sensitivity experiments for different scenarios allows illustrating the model's behavior and its value for decision-makers. The major observation from the simulation experiments is that the timing of the closing and opening of the facilities at different echelons might become a major factor that determines the epidemic outbreak impact on the SC performance rather than an upstream disruption duration or the speed of epidemic propagation. Other important factors are lead-time, speed of epidemic propagation, and the upstream and downstream disruption durations in the SC. The outcomes of this research can be used by decisionmakers to predict the operative and long-term impacts of epidemic outbreaks on the SCs and develop pandemic SC plans. Our approach can also help to identify the successful and wrong elements of risk mitigation/preparedness and recovery policies in case of epidemic outbreaks. The paper is concluded by summarizing the most important insights and outlining future research agenda.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the impacts of epidemic outbreaks on global supply chains: A simulation-based analysis on the coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) case

Ivanov

2020

Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Re

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1,652

1,348

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“…Basole and Bellamy (2014) focused on the identification of 'healthy nodes' in the SC based on the level of risk diffusion. Chen, Xi, and Jing (2017) and Macdonald et al (2018) show that SC robustness and resilience should not merely be based on a straightforward disruption magnitude analysis, but rather seek trajectories of how different disruption scenarios influence the severity in network degradation and recovery (Pavlov et al 2019a).…”

Section: Viability Vs Stability Robustness and Resilience Of Scsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Viability of intertwined supply networks: extending the supply chain resilience angles towards survivability. A position paper motivated by COVID-19 outbreak

Ivanov

Dolgui

2020

International Journal of Production Research

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An intertwined supply network (ISN) is an entirety of interconnected supply chains (SC) which, in their integrity secure the provision of society and markets with goods and services. The ISNs are open systems with structural dynamics since the firms may exhibit multiple behaviours by changing the buyer-supplier roles in interconnected or even competing SCs. From the positions of resilience, the ISNs as a whole provide services to society (e.g. food service, mobility service or communication service) which are required to ensure a long-term survival. The analysis of survivability at the level of ISN requires a consideration at a large scale as resilience of individual SCs. The recent example of coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak clearly shows the necessity of this new perspective. Our study introduces a new angle in SC resilience research when a resistance to extraordinary disruptions needs to be considered at the scale of viability. We elaborate on the integrity of the ISN and viability. The contribution of our position study lies in a conceptualisation of a novel decision-making environment of ISN viability. We illustrate the viability formation through a dynamic game-theoretic modelling of a biological system that resembles the ISN. We discuss some future research areas.

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“…In this connection, research has considered supply-side disruption (Pal et al 2014;Gülpnar et al 2014;Ray & Jenamani 2013;Wang & Yu 2020), production disruption (Paul et al 2019b;Bao et al 2020), transportation and distribution disruption (Chaghooshi & Moein 2014;Wilson 2007;Hishamuddin et al 2015), demand-side disruption (Paul et al 2014a and b;Kirchoff et al 2011;Ray & Jenamani 2016), and the combination of two or more the previously listed types of disruption. This perspective focuses on how a disruption in a particular function of a supply chain can imbalance the entire supply chain network, due to the ripple effect it creates (Kim et al 2014;Dolgui et al 2020;Das et al 2019;Ivanov et al 2019;Pavlov et al 2019).…”

Section: Risk and Disruption Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

A case study on strategies to deal with the impacts of COVID-19 pandemic in the food and beverage industry

Chowdhury¹,

Sarkar²,

et al. 2020

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This research investigates the impacts of the novel coronavirus disease, also referred to as COVID-19 pandemic, on the food and beverage industry. It examines both short-term and medium-to-long-term impacts of the pandemic and outlines strategies to reduce the potential consequences of those impacts. To this end, we use a qualitative, multiple-case-study methodology, collecting data from eight sample companies with fourteen respondents in the food and beverage industry in Bangladesh. The findings show that the short-term impacts of this pandemic, such as product expiry, shortage of working capital, and limited operations of distributors, are severe, while the medium-to-long-term impacts promise to be complex and uncertain. In the longer term, various performance metrics, such as return on investment by the firms, the contribution of the firms to the gross domestic product (GDP), and employee size, are all expected to decrease. Moreover, firms may need to restructure their supply chain and build relationships with new distributors and trade partners. The study proposes several strategies that managers in this sector can adopt to improve resiliency in the changing environment during and after the COVID-19 era. While this research is novel and contributes to both theory and practice, it does not consider small and medium-sized companies in the food and beverage industry. Therefore, the impacts and strategies we identify may not apply to smaller companies.

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Integrated detection of disruption scenarios, the ripple effect dispersal and recovery paths in supply chains

Cited by 84 publications

References 63 publications

Predicting the impacts of epidemic outbreaks on global supply chains: A simulation-based analysis on the coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) case

Predicting the impacts of epidemic outbreaks on global supply chains: A simulation-based analysis on the coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) case

Viability of intertwined supply networks: extending the supply chain resilience angles towards survivability. A position paper motivated by COVID-19 outbreak

A case study on strategies to deal with the impacts of COVID-19 pandemic in the food and beverage industry

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