Integrated evaluation of water-related disasters using the analytical hierarchy process under land use change and climate change issues in Laos

Abstract

<jats:p>Abstract. In the past few decades, various natural hazards have occurred in Laos. To lower the consequences and losses caused by hazardous events, it is important to understand the magnitude of each hazard and the potential impact area. The main objective of this study was to propose a new approach to integrating hazard maps to detect hazardous areas on a national scale, for which area-limited data are available. The integrated hazard maps were based on a merging of five hazard maps: floods, land use changes, landslides, climate change impacts on floods and climate change impacts on landslides. The integrated hazard map consists of 6 maps under 3 representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios and 2 time periods (near future and far future). The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was used as a tool to combine the different hazard maps into an integrated hazard map. From the results, comparing the increase in the very high-hazard area between the integrated hazard maps of the far future under the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, Khammouan Province has the highest increase (16.45 %). Additionally, the very high-hazard area in Khammouan Province increased by approximately 12.47 % between the integrated hazard maps under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of the far future. </jats:p>