Integrated Human Futures Modeling in Egypt

Passell, Howard David; Aamir, Munaf Syed; Bernard, Michael L.; Beyeler, Walter E.; Fellner, Karen Marie; Hayden, Nancy Kay; Jeffers, Robert Fredric; Keller, Elizabeth; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Mitchell, Mark B.; Silver, Emily J.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Villa, Daniel; Vugrin, Eric D.; Engelke, Peter; Burrow, Mat; Keith, Bruce

doi:10.2172/1235807

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…Other studies corroborate these findings, suggesting that temperatures in Africa will increase, on average, 3–4°C 10 with the North African region possibly realizing increases in temperature of 7–9°C by the century’s end. 9–11 Although studies employing GCMs disagree on the level of changes in precipitation, sources acknowledge that the basin could see dramatic oscillations gravitating between too much and too little rain. 12 The net effect, as reported by Yates and Strzepek 13 based on six GCMs, is that temperature could seriously challenge water resources in the Nile Basin.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Considerations in managing the fill rate of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Reservoir using a system dynamics approach

Keith

Ford

Horton

2016

Journal of Defense Modeling & Simulation

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The purpose of this study is to evaluate simulated fill rate scenarios for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam while taking into account plausible climate change outcomes for the Nile River Basin. The region lacks a comprehensive equitable water resource management strategy, which creates regional security concerns and future possible conflicts. We employ climate estimates from 33 general circulation models within a system dynamics model as a step in moving toward a feasible regional water resource management strategy. We find that annual reservoir fill rates of 8–15% are capable of building hydroelectric capacity in Ethiopia while concurrently ensuring a minimum level of stream flow disruption into Egypt before 2039. Insofar as climate change estimates suggest a modest average increase in stream flow into the Aswan, climate changes through 2039 are unlikely to affect the fill rate policies. However, larger fill rates will have a more detrimental effect on stream flow into the Aswan, particularly beyond a policy of 15%. While this study demonstrates that a technical solution for reservoir fill rates is feasible, the corresponding policy challenge is political. Implementation of water resource management strategies in the Nile River Basin specifically and Africa generally will necessitate a national and regional willingness to cooperate.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%