Integrated modeling of surface water and groundwater interactions in the Eastern Mitidja Plain, North Algeria: investigating the impact of human activities and climate change

Abstract

The study aims to investigate surface water (SW)–groundwater (GW) interactions in the Mitidja Plain (northern Algeria), taking into account the impacts of human activity and climate change emphasizing the alignment with Sustainable Development Goals, Clean Water and Sanitation, and Climate Action. The dynamic interactions between the El Hamiz River and the alluvial aquifer were studied using MODFLOW 6. A typical scenario analysis approach was employed, considering historical and projected climate conditions based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 models, as well as current and projected GW abstraction rates. The findings reveal substantial changes in flow dynamics over time. In 1982, the aquifer refilled the river at a rate of 2.59 m3/s. In 2019, a new state was observed where the opposite occurred the river recharged the aquifer at a rate of 0.73 m3/s. This reduction in the flow rate can be attributed to over-pumping and declining recharge rates, and this pattern is anticipated to persist in the future. Furthermore, future forecasts indicate that GW overuse has a greater impact on GW dynamics compared to climate change. However, the adoption of saltwater desalination and enhanced irrigation methods could make a significant contribution to the sustainable development of GW resources, with an increase of up to approximately 14 m.