Integrated modelling of sea-state forecasts for safe navigation and operational management in ports: Application in the Mediterranean Sea

Makris, Christos; Androulidakis, Yannis; Karambas, Theophanis V.; Papadimitriou, Andreas; Metallinos, Anastasios; Kontos, Yiannis; Baltikas, Vasilis; Chondros, Michalis; Krestenitis, Yannis Ν.; Tsoukala, Vasiliki K.; Memos, Constantine D.

doi:10.1016/j.apm.2020.08.015

Cited by 21 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…These challenges are purely operational: short-term dayto-day flood risk needs to be continuously estimated on synoptic timescales using observation-driven numerical forecasting models and other types of early warning systems (Žust et al, 2021;Makris et al, 2021;Ferrarin et al, 2020;Bajo et al, 2019;Mel and Lionello, 2014;Ferrarin et al, 2013;Pérez Gómez et al, 2012. Ensemble modelling allows dealing with uncertainties by generating probabilistic envelopes of possible sea levels (Bernier and Thompson, 2015;Bertotti et al, 2011;Ferrarin et al, 2020).…”

Section: Storm Surges and Coastal Floodingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coastal sea level monitoring in the Mediterranean and Black seas

Gómez¹,

Vilibić²,

Šepić

et al. 2022

Ocean Sci.

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Abstract. Employed for over a century, the traditional way of monitoring sea level variability by tide gauges – in combination with modern observational techniques like satellite altimetry – is an inevitable ingredient in sea level studies over the climate scales and in coastal seas. The development of the instrumentation, remote data acquisition, processing, and archiving in the last decades has allowed the extension of the applications to a variety of users and coastal hazard managers. The Mediterranean and Black seas are examples of such a transition – while having a long tradition of sea level observations with several records spanning over a century, the number of modern tide gauge stations is growing rapidly, with data available both in real time and as a research product at different time resolutions. As no comprehensive survey of the tide gauge networks has been carried out recently in these basins, the aim of this paper is to map the existing coastal sea level monitoring infrastructures and the respective data availability. The survey encompasses a description of major monitoring networks in the Mediterranean and Black seas and their characteristics, including the type of sea level sensors, measuring resolutions, data availability, and existence of ancillary measurements, altogether collecting information about 240 presently operational tide gauge stations. The availability of the Mediterranean and Black seas sea level data in the global and European sea level repositories has been also screened and classified following their sampling interval and level of quality check, pointing to the necessity of harmonization of the data available with different metadata and series in different repositories. Finally, an assessment of the networks' capabilities for their use in different sea level applications has been done, with recommendations that might mitigate the bottlenecks and ensure further development of the networks in a coordinated way, a critical need in the era of human-induced climate changes and sea level rise.

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Section: Storm Surges and Coastal Floodingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coastal sea level monitoring in the Mediterranean and Black seas

Gómez¹,

Vilibić²,

Šepić

et al. 2022

Ocean Sci.

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“…The HiReSS model is the numerical forecast tool of several operational applications in regional and marginal seas (e.g., Mediterranean Sea, Red Sea, Yellow Sea, Black Sea, Java Sea, NW Atlantic Ocean), gulfs, straits and local aquatic bodies (e.g., Gulf of Finland, Osaka Gulf, Tokyo Gulf, Persian Gulf, English Channel). These applications are operating daily in the frameworks of two research projects: Wave4Us (Krestenitis et al, 2015(Krestenitis et al, , 2017; http://wave4us.web.auth.gr/; https://www.meteo.gr/meteomaps/sea_level.cfm) and Accu-Waves (Makris et al, 2021a;2021b; https://accuwaves.eu/forecast/). HiReSS model has also been used to estimate both future projections of storm surges under climatic scenarios (Androulidakis et al, 2015;Makris et al, 2016) and storm surge variability along coasts during long-term past periods (Krestenitis et al, 2011).…”

Section: Numerical Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The coupled numerical simulations during the IANOS period are described in Section 2.1.4. coastal areas over a shoaling continental shelf, based on the shallow water equations. Thus, it can predict the SLA and the depth-integrated sea currents (induced by atmospheric forcing; wind and SLP) combined with astronomical tide effects (Krestenitis et al, 2015;Makris et al, 2021a). The HiReSS model is the numerical forecast tool of several operational applications in regional and marginal seas (e.g., Mediterranean Sea, Red Sea, Yellow Sea, Black Sea, Java Sea, NW Atlantic Ocean), gulfs, straits and local aquatic bodies (e.g., Gulf of Finland, Osaka Gulf, Tokyo Gulf, Persian Gulf, English Channel).…”

Section: Numerical Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Storm surges during IANOS Medicane

Androulidakis

Makris

Mallios

et al. 2022

Preprint

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The IANOS Medicane was one the most severe storms that have formed in the Mediterranean Sea with Category 2 Hurricane characteristics. The storm induced a significant increase of sea level elevation along its pathway and caused the occurrence of storm surges at the central Ionian Sea with consequent impacts on coastal regions of the Ionian islands and western Greece. A multi-platform approach, based on hydrodynamic ocean simulations, nested to meteorological and coastal flooding simulations, is used in combination with field and satellite observations to describe the marine weather conditions, the storm surge characteristics, and the coastal inundation processes due to the impact of IANOS Medicane in September 2020. Both wind and atmospheric pressure patterns affected the storm surge variability over the Ionian Sea. The direct intrusion of the Medicane from the central Mediterranean Sea towards the Ionian Sea formed storm surges over several coastal areas, even before the storm's landfall, due to the accompanying onshore currents. Storm surges in the order of 30 cm generated extensive flooding over lowland coastal areas, as confirmed by both satellite (Normalized Difference Water Index: NDWI) and numerical (coastal inundation modeling) data. Satellite-derived and simulated estimations showed that, in specific coastal regions, the run-up of seawater extended up to 200 m inland, depending on the hydraulic connectivity between the lowland areas, which determined the inundation extents during the storm surge.

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“…The marine hydrodynamic models have been extensively validated in the past at coastal areas around the Mediterranean basin and specifically in the Greek parts of the Aegean coastal zone focusing on the Alexandroupoli port, for long-term analysis, shortterm severe events, and in operational forecast mode [15,[57][58][59]61,72,73]. As H s extremes have been identified as the primary cause of port downtime in the Aegean, only wave events of directions affecting the port of Alexandroupoli, exceeding a threshold of H s = 1.5 m for durations more than six hours [26], were initially selected at a representative point of the SWAN model grid in the Thracian Sea offshore area (Figure 2).…”

Section: Available Storm Surge and Wave Modeling Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Nonstationary Extreme Value Analysis of Nearshore Sea-State Parameters under the Effects of Climate Change: Application to the Greek Coastal Zone and Port Structures

Γαλιατσάτου

Makris²,

Krestenitis³

et al. 2021

JMSE

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In the present work, a methodological framework, based on nonstationary extreme value analysis of nearshore sea-state parameters, is proposed for the identification of climate change impacts on coastal zone and port defense structures. The applications refer to the estimation of coastal hazards on characteristic Mediterranean microtidal littoral zones and the calculation of failure probabilities of typical rubble mound breakwaters in Greek ports. The proposed methodology hinges on the extraction of extreme wave characteristics and sea levels due to storm events affecting the coast, a nonstationary extreme value analysis of sea-state parameters and coastal responses using moving time windows, a fitting of parametric trends to nonstationary parameter estimates of the extreme value models, and an assessment of nonstationary failure probabilities on engineered port protection. The analysis includes estimation of extreme total water level (TWL) on several Greek coasts to approximate the projected coastal flooding hazard under climate change conditions in the 21st century. The TWL calculation considers the wave characteristics, sea level height due to storm surges, mean sea level (MSL) rise, and astronomical tidal ranges of the study areas. Moreover, the failure probabilities of a typical coastal defense structure are assessed for several failure mechanisms, considering variations in MSL, extreme wave climates, and storm surges in the vicinity of ports, within the framework of reliability analysis based on the nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. The methodology supports the investigation of future safety levels and possible periods of increased vulnerability of the studied structure to different ultimate limit states under extreme marine weather conditions associated with climate change, aiming at the development of appropriate upgrading solutions. The analysis suggests that the assumption of stationarity might underestimate the total failure probability of coastal structures under future extreme marine conditions.

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Integrated modelling of sea-state forecasts for safe navigation and operational management in ports: Application in the Mediterranean Sea

Cited by 21 publications

References 37 publications

Coastal sea level monitoring in the Mediterranean and Black seas

Coastal sea level monitoring in the Mediterranean and Black seas

Storm surges during IANOS Medicane

Nonstationary Extreme Value Analysis of Nearshore Sea-State Parameters under the Effects of Climate Change: Application to the Greek Coastal Zone and Port Structures

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