In this paper, an
integrated workflow was developed to estimate
coalbed methane (CBM) probabilistic resources. This workflow captures
all of the uncertainty parameters in CBM modeling, including the structural
surface and coal thickness in the structural modeling and the coal
facies, logging density, etc. in the property modeling. These uncertainties
were statistically analyzed and quantified. Sensitivity analysis was
carried out to rank the impact of these parameters on the resources,
and six sensitive parameters were chosen. Then, multiple stochastic
models were generated using the aforementioned six parameters to determine
the resource distribution, from which the P90, P50, and P10 resources
were chosen. Finally, the low, middle, and high probabilistic models
corresponding to these three probabilistic resources were attained.
This workflow was applied to a CBM field in Australia, and the simulated
results show that for the low, middle, and high probabilistic resource
models the resources are always high in the central and western part
of the study area.